Research on the fine management of medical consumables based on interrupted time series analysis
10.3969/j.issn.1672-8270.2025.10.018
- VernacularTitle:基于中断时间序列分析的医用耗材精细化管理研究
- Author:
Sen YANG
1
;
Aiqin GU
;
Zebing WU
;
Hui WANG
Author Information
1. 泰州市人民医院人力资源处 泰州 225300
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Medical consumables;
Refined management;
Detection for abnormity;
Dynamic early warning;
Clinical service performance
- From:
China Medical Equipment
2025;22(10):96-101
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a refined management model based on the Interrupt Time Series(ITS)algorithm model for medical consumables,so as to provide a scientific basis for hospitals in implementing refined management for medical consumables.Methods:The supply,inventory and usage data of medical consumables were collected,and the ITS algorithm was used to analyze the prediction for the usage of medical consumables,and the influence of policy intervention.The outliers and key influencing factors of the full-cycle data of medical consumables were mined,and management countermeasures were formulated from three aspects:early warning for dynamic inventory,feedback of policy effect,and abnormal rectification handling.A total of 10,614 medical consumables that were routinely used at Taizhou People's Hospital from January 2023 to December 2024 were selected.The empirical management method was adopted to manage 4,924 medical consumables during the period from January to December 2023,and the refined management method was adopted to manage 5,690 medical consumables during the period from January to December 2024.The utilization rate of medical consumables,the quality of management decisions and the performance of clinical services of the two management methods were compared.Results:The average inventory turnover rate and usage rate of medical consumables of the refined management method were respectively(91.11±3.02)%and(91.19±2.75)%,which were higher than those of the empirical management method.The proportion of average inventory cost,and loss rate of overstock of the refined management method were respectively(2.53±0.57)%and(2.84±0.44)%,which were lower than those of the empirical management method,and the differences were all statistically significant(t=4.698,5.976,4.518,8.496,P<0.05).The average accuracy rate of prediction,detection rate of abnormity,and the mean of timely handling rate of the refined management method for medical consumables were all higher than those of the empirical management method,and the differences were statistically significant(t=6.423,8.587,6.102,P<0.05).The satisfaction of doctors,nurses,warehouse managers and purchasing managers who used and managed medical consumables for the clinical service performance of adopting the refined management method was higher than that of adopting the empirical management method,and the differences were statistically significant(x2=7.416,12.793,4.267,4.667,P<0.05).Conclusion:The application of the refined management model based on the ITS algorithm model for medical consumables can enhance the predictive ability for the demand of medical staffs for medical consumables,and reduce the pressure for inventory,and management costs of medical consumables,and accurately detect abnormal problems in the use of medical consumables,and improve the level of clinical services.
