Effects of changes in disease and injury spectrum on the health-adjusted life expectancy of permanent residents aged 55 and above in Shenzhen City from 2016 to 2030
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20241115-00913
- VernacularTitle:2016—2030年深圳市55岁及以上常住人口的疾病和伤害谱变化对健康调整预期寿命的影响
- Author:
Junyan XI
1
;
Yijing WANG
;
Yingbin FU
;
Xiaoheng LI
;
Jianjun BAI
;
Yining XIANG
;
Xiao LIN
;
Jing GU
;
Yuantao HAO
;
Gang LIU
Author Information
1. 中山大学公共卫生学院医学统计学系，广州 510080
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Life expectancy;
Life table;
Diseases burden;
Healthy aging;
Forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2025;59(10):1640-1647
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the effects of the disease and injury spectrum on health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) among permanent residents aged 55 and above in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2030.Methods:Based on the mortality surveillance data and the permanent resident population data in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2022, the Sullivan method was used to calculate the HALE during 2016—2022. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model and the grey system model were used to predict the HALE during 2023—2030. The HALE changes in the two periods were decomposed into the contributions of 20 categories of diseases and injuries, respectively.Results:From 2016 to 2022, the HALE increased from 31.41 years (95% CI: 30.50-32.32) to 33.57 years (95% CI: 32.47-34.67). During this period, the mortality effect of neurological disorders slowed the increase of HALE, with a reduction of 0.27 years. By 2030, it is anticipated that the HALE will reach 36.40 years (95% CI: 34.78-38.01). This is expected to be influenced by the mortality effects of nutritional deficiencies (-0.40 years) and mental disorders (-0.29 years), as well as the disability effects of musculoskeletal disorders (-0.66 years), skin and subcutaneous diseases (-0.21 years) and nutritional deficiencies (-0.13 years). Conclusion:The HALE of permanent residents aged 55 years and above in Shenzhen demonstrated an increasing trend over time. Greater attention should be paid to the adverse effects of neurological disorders, nutritional deficiencies, mental disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases on the continuous increase of HALE in this population.
