Development and verification of a deep learning-based disease-free survival prediction nomogram model for patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma
10.3760/cma.j.cn112330-20250318-00100
- VernacularTitle:基于病理图像深度学习的ccRCC不良预后列线图模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Siteng CHEN
1
;
Liren JIANG
;
Tianyi CHEN
;
Yaoyu YU
;
Wei ZHAI
;
Junhua ZHENG
Author Information
1. 上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院泌尿科，上海 200127
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Carcinoma，renal cell;
Deep learning;
Pathological images;
Survival prognosis;
Nomograms
- From:
Chinese Journal of Urology
2025;46(5):337-342
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the construction and validation of a nomogram model for predicting poor survival prognosis in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma（ccRCC）based on deep learning of pathological images.Methods:This study was an observational cohort study. The original pathological images and clinicopathological data（TCGA cohort）of 378 patients with ccRCC were obtained from the Cancer Genome Atlas Database（TCGA）for model training. A total of 301 patients with ccRCC who underwent surgical treatment at Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine from January 2010 to December 2020（Renji cohort）and 214 patients with ccRCC who underwent surgical treatment at the First People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine from January 2012 to December 2018（General cohort）were included for model validation. Their original pathological images and clinical pathological data were collected. A clustering-constrained attention and multi-instance learning method was used to accurately identify sub-regions of the images to classify and extract features of the pathological images. A deep learning-based disease-free survival prognosis prediction model（DL-DFS）was constructed through a weakly supervised learning strategy. The clinical pathological features and DL-DFS were further combined to construct a nomogram model for the clinical prognosis of ccRCC patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to evaluate the independent risk factors for disease-free survival（DFS）. The efficacy of the predictive model were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve（ROC）with area under the curve（AUC），respectively. Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier curve.Results:DL-DFS could accurately predict the DFS status of ccRCC patients in 5 years after surgery. Through ROC analysis in the training cohort，the AUC value reached 0.75（ P < 0.001）. In the Renji cohort and the General cohort，the AUC values were 0.65（ P < 0.001）and 0.81（ P < 0.001），respectively. Through Kaplan-Meier survival analysis，we found that DL-DFS could identify ccRCC patients with high survival risks. The hazard ratio in the training cohort was 3.86（95% CI 2.36-6.30， P < 0.001）. The hazard ratio in the Renji cohort and General cohort were 1.97（95% CI 1.03-3.80， P = 0.009）and 4.66（95% CI 1.80-12.06， P = 0.008），respectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that DL-DFS risk score，tumor grade，and tumor stage could act as prognostic risk factors for patients with ccRCC（ P < 0.05）. Considering that age was a common prognostic risk factor for patients with renal cancer，a nomogram model was constructed by combining the DL-DFS risk score with patient age，tumor grade，and tumor stage. The AUC of this model for predicting the 5-year DFS of ccRCC patients after surgery was 0.87，which was significantly higher than that of DL-DFS（AUC = 0.74），tumor stage（AUC = 0.84），tumor grade（AUC = 0.72），and patient age（AUC = 0.56）in the TCGA cohort（all P<0.05）. In the Renji cohort and the General cohort，the AUC of the nomogram model were 0.78 and 0.86 respectively，which was significantly higher than that of DL-DFS（0.65 and 0.81），tumor stage（0.72 and 0.69），tumor grade（0.64 and 0.77），and patient age（0.56 and 0.63）. Conclusions:In this study a DL-DFS for ccRCC patients was constructed. Then a nomogram model was constructed by combining the DL-DFS risk value with patient age，tumor grade，and tumor stage. This nomogram model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to DL-DFS alone in evaluating the DFS prognosis of ccRCC patients，which still needs to be further verified in prospective clinical studies.
