Trend in malignant tumor mortality for the surrounding residents prior to operation of Jinqimen Nuclear Power Plant at Xiangshan county, Zhejiang province during 2011-2023
10.3760/cma.j.cn112271-20250228-00068
- VernacularTitle:2011—2023年浙江省象山县金七门核电站运行前周围居民恶性肿瘤死亡趋势分析
- Author:
Yong WANG
1
;
Qun ZHANG
;
Kaifang BAO
;
Beibei LU
;
Jieping CHEN
;
Zi CHEN
;
Mingxiang LI
;
Xiaoli WANG
;
Dandan ZHANG
Author Information
1. 宁波市疾病预防控制中心环境职业与放射卫生科，宁波 315010
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Malignant tumor mortality;
Nuclear power plant;
Radiation-sensitive tumors
- From:
Chinese Journal of Radiological Medicine and Protection
2025;45(10):991-1002
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the 2011-to-2023 baseline data on, and the variations theirin, malignant tumor mortality for the surrounding residents prior to operation of the Jin-Qimen nuclear power plant at Xiangshan county, Zhejiang province, for pursose of providing scientific basis for evaluating the health impacts of nuclear power plant operation.Methods:Data on malignant tumor mortality and population in Xiangshan county from 2011 to 2023 were collected from the Ningzhou Cause of Death Monitoring System and the Ningzhou Public Security Bureau. Crude death rates and standardized rates (China standard population) were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC).Results:The average annual malignant tumor mortality from 2011 to 2023 was 212.42 deaths per 100 000 population (age-standardized rate: 133.16 deaths per 100 000 population), with males at 287.41 deaths per 100 000 and females at 135.40 deaths per 100 000 population. The crude mortality exhibited an upward trend (AAPC=1.264%, t=5.07, P<0.05), while the age-standardized rate showed a significant downward trend (AAPC=-2.753%, t=-10.50, P<0.05). Mortality increased with age ( χ2=23 903.91, P<0.05), peaking in the ≥85 age group (1 693.11 per 100 000), and rising trends were observed in males ( χ2=16 982.46, P<0.05) and females ( χ2=7 329.05, P<0.05). Leading causes included lung cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreatic cancer. Liver cancer, gastric cancer, and esophageal cancer showed declining trends, whereas prostate cancer increased. Radiation-sensitive tumors (e.g., leukemia, breast cancer, thyroid cancer) displayed no significant trends. Among individuals under the age of 30, leukemia and brain/nervous system cancers predominated; for those aged 30-79, the lung, liver, and gastric cancers were dominant; and for the group aged 80 and above, the lung, gastric, and colorectal cancers were dominant. Malignant tumor mortality increased with distance from the nuclear facility ( χ2=6.90, P<0.05), significantly in males ( χ2=10.42, P<0.05) but not in females ( P>0.05). Leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer mortality showed no significant trends ( P>0.05). Conclusions:The age-standardized mortality rate for malignant tumors in Xiangshan county demonstrated an overall declining trend, with notable changes in specific cancers. Leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer mortality remained relatively stable. These baseline findings provide a scientific basis for health impact assessments of nuclear power plants and sustainable nuclear energy development.
