Analysis of risk factors of postoperative fungal infection in patients with upper urinary tract calculi and construction of a risk prediction nomograph model
10.3760/cma.j.cn112330-20240509-00215
- VernacularTitle:上尿路结石患者术后发生真菌感染的危险因素分析及预测模型的构建
- Author:
Haofang ZHANG
1
;
Shuo WANG
1
;
Xiaofu WANG
1
;
Shengwei ZHANG
1
;
Enxu XIE
1
;
Yifan HU
1
;
Changbao XU
1
Author Information
1. 郑州大学第二附属医院泌尿外科，郑州 450000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Upper urinary calculi;
Fungal infections;
Risk factors;
Nomogram;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Urology
2025;46(3):205-212
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors of fungal infection in patients with upper urinary tract calculi after surgery and construct a risk prediction nomograph model.Methods:The clinical data of 2 329 patients who had undergone upper urinary calculus surgery in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2019 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the presence or absence of fungal infection within 3 months after surgery, the patients were divided into fungal infection group (n=97) and non-fungal infection group (n=2 232). Univariate logistic regression analysis and LASSO regression were used to screen the potential influencing factors. The enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=1 630) and a validation set (n=699) at a ratio of 7∶3. Based on the training set, multivariate logistic stepwise regression was used to screen independent risk factors and to construct a nomogram. Based on the validation set, ROC curve, calibration curve and decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model's differentiation, accuracy and clinical applicability.Results:Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that female gender, age, diabetes mellitus, history of malignant tumor, long-term bedridden disease, long-term use of immunosuppressants, hemoglobin on admission, serum creatinine, uric acid, white blood cell count on admission, neutrophil count on admission, degree of hydronephrosis, preoperative indwelling ureteral stent, duration of surgery, postoperative fever within 48 hours, white blood cell count, neutrophil count, CRP, urinary catheter indwelling time, length of hospital stay, use of carbapenem antibiotics, the duration of antibiotic use and the duration of postoperative ureteral stent indwelling were related to fungal infection. screening after upper urinary calculi surgery ( P<0.05). Univariate logistic regression results were screened after LASSO regression. Multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis for the training set showed that age ( OR=1.041, 95% CI 1.017-1.066, P=0.001), diabetes( OR=3.138, 95% CI 1.517-6.492, P=0.002), long-term bed-rest ( OR=10.627, 95% CI 3.671-30.767, P<0.001), history of malignant tumor( OR=11.934, 95% CI 5.473-26.022, P<0.001), white blood cell count on admission( OR=1.276, 95% CI 1.134-1.436, P<0.001), postoperative fever within 48 hours ( OR=3.940, 95% CI 1.956-7.937, P<0.001), use of carbapenem antibiotics( OR=5.826, 95% CI 2.783-12.196, P<0.001), length of hospital stay( OR=1.201, 95% CI 1.131-1.277, P<0.001), and postoperative retention time of ureteral stent( OR=1.205, 95% CI 1.104-1.315, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for fungal infection after upper urinary calculi surgery.The nomogram model was constructed based on independent risk factors. The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of the nomogram model in the prediction validation set was 0.955(95% CI 0.926-0.984). The calibration curve of the model was well fitted to the ideal curve. The results of decision curve analysis proved that the net benefit rate of the prediction model within the threshold range was higher than the two extreme lines when the threshold probability was <86%, indicating that the model was of good clinical applicability. Conclusions:Age, diabetes, history of malignant tumor, long-term bed-rest disease, white blood cell count on admission, postoperative fever within 48 hours, use of carbapenem antibiotics, length of hospital stay, and postoperative retention time of ureteral stent are independent risk factors for fungal infection in patients with upper urinary calculi after surgery. The model constructed in this study has good predictive ability and clinical applicability for the risk of fungal infection in patients with upper urinary calculi after surgery.
