Identification of associated factors and construction of a predictive model for membranous nephropathy patients with IgM deposition
10.3760/cma.j.cn441217-20240822-00826
- VernacularTitle:伴IgM沉积膜性肾病患者缓解的相关因素及预测模型构建
- Author:
Lei HE
1
;
Yunhui ZHANG
1
;
Jingjing JIN
1
;
Meijuan CHENG
1
;
Shenglei ZHANG
1
;
Yaling BAI
1
;
Jinsheng XU
1
Author Information
1. 河北省慢性肾病临床医学研究中心 河北省肾脏病血管钙化重点实验室 河北医科大学第四医院肾内科，石家庄 050000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Glomerulonephritis, membranous;
Immunoglobulin M;
Models, statistical;
Antibodies against phospholipase A2 receptor;
Immunosuppressor
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nephrology
2025;41(7):489-497
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the associated factors for membranous nephropathy (MN) patients with IgM deposition, and to construct a prediction model.Methods:This study was a retrospective cohort study. Patients diagnosed with MN with IgM deposition by renal biopsy in the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from February 2017 to December 2023 were retrospectively included. Clinical and pathological data were collected. The study population was randomized into a training set and a validation set at a 7:3 ratio. The endpoint event was defined as the remission of MN, and the patients were divided into remission group and non-remission group to compare the clinical and pathological examination results. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and Cox regression analysis were used to explore the associated factors of poor prognosis of MN patients with IgM deposition. Internal validation was conducted using the validation set data. The clinical efficacy of the predictive model was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and generating calibration curves. The total nomogram score for each patient was calculated based on the training set data, and the predictive performance was assessed by plotting the ROC curve. Patients were then stratified into low-risk and high-risk groups according to the optimal cut-off value derived from the ROC analysis of the total nomogram score. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare the remission rate between the two groups. Model performance was evaluated using the validation set.Results:A total of 200 MN patients with IgM deposition were included, and 49.0% of them achieved clinical remission. In the training set, statistically significant differences were observed in 24-hour urine protein quantification ( Z=-2.638, P=0.008), renal arteriolar wall thickening ( χ2=6.891, P=0.009), the proportion of patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy ( χ2=21.381, P<0.001), and the proportion of patients treated with corticosteroids combined with cyclophosphamide ( χ2=10.107, P=0.001). Through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and Cox regression, 2 factors associated with clinical remission in MN patients with IgM deposition were simultaneously identified from 16 potential associated factors, including the use of immunosuppressants ( HR=3.823, 95% CI 2.055-7.113, P<0.001), and renal arteriolar wall thickening ( HR=0.428, 95% CI 0.221-0.831, P=0.012). Incorporating the clinical measurement of phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R) antibodies, a predictive model was established. The performance of the model was evaluated using the training dataset, yielding an area under the ROC curve of 0.731 (95% CI 0.648-0.814), with a sensitivity of 88.7% and a specificity of 55.1%. The optimal cut-off value was a total nomogram score of 41.7 points. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the remission rate was significantly higher in the low-risk group than that of the high-risk group (Log-rank test, χ2=33.525, P<0.001). Model validation was performed using the validation dataset, which showed an AUC of 0.715 (95% CI 0.591-0.839), sensitivity of 70.4%, and specificity of 63.6%. Similarly, the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated a significantly higher remission rate in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group (Log-rank test, χ2=8.467, P=0.004). Conclusion:A nomogram predictive model for remission of MN patients with IgM deposition, based on serum PLA2R antibody levels, the use of immunosuppressive therapy, and renal arteriolar wall thickening is developed. The model demonstrates a moderate clinical applicability.
