Analysis of the incidence trend of inflammatory bowel disease in the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021 based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort model
10.3760/cma.j.cn101480-20250217-00025
- VernacularTitle:基于贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型分析2002—2021年中国老年炎症性肠病发病趋势
- Author:
Guilian LAN
1
;
Yichao GAN
;
Zhenhua ZHU
Author Information
1. 南昌大学第一附属医院消化内科，330006
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Inflammatory bowel disease;
Elderly;
Incidence;
Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases
2025;09(5):417-423
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To describe the incidence trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021, estimate age-period-cohort (APC) effects, and predict future trends.Methods:Data on elderly IBD incidence and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) from 2002 to 2021 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2021 database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) evaluated ASIR trends. APC and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were used to analyze effects and predict incidence from 2022 to 2031. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by applying alternative hyperprior values (a=1, b=0.0005) to assess model stability.Results:From 2002 to 2021, ASIR increased from 0.186 per 100, 000 to 0.272 per 100, 000 (EAPC = 2.234%, 95% CI: 1.715%-2.756%). Age effects showed a downward-then-upward trend in males and a decline in females, with peak incidence at 60-<64 years. Period effects increased steadily in males, while females showed an initial rise followed by a decline. Cohort effects rose and then declined with successive birth cohorts. Projections suggest ASIR will continue to rise through 2031. Sensitivity analysis showed ASIR trends closely matched the main model, indicating robustness. Conclusion:The burden of IBD among older adults in China is increasing. Strengthened prevention, health education, and lifestyle promotion for those aged 60-<70 are recommended.
