Analysis of epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of pertussis in Tianjin City from 2010 to 2024
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20250627-00592
- VernacularTitle:2010—2024年天津市百日咳流行特征及时空聚集性分析
- Author:
Guoping ZHANG
1
;
Yuting GUO
1
;
Ying LIU
1
;
Tianbao FU
1
;
Yaxing DING
1
Author Information
1. 天津市疾病预防控制中心免疫规划所，天津 300011
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Pertussis;
Cross-sectional studies;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Joinpoint regression model;
Spatial-temporal clustering
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2025;59(11):1867-1872
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of pertussis in Tianjin City from 2010 to 2024. Data on pertussis cases reported in Tianjin between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2024, were extracted from the Infectious Disease Surveillance and Reporting Information System of the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiological methods and Joinpoint regression were used to analyze the temporal distribution and incidence trends of pertussis. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial-temporal scanning were employed to characterize the spatial distribution and clustering patterns. The incidence rate of pertussis in Tianjin exhibited an overall upward trend from 2010 to 2024 (AAPC=17.04%, P<0.001), peaking at 11.70 per 100 000 population in 2023. Prior to 2020, the incidence peaked in July and August, whereas from 2023 to 2024, high incidence periods shifted to autumn and winter. The highest average annual incidence rate occurred in the <1-year-old group (165.06 per 100 000), followed by the 5-9-year-old group (20.14 per 100 000). The groups under 1 year old and 1-4 years old showed a trend of first increasing, then decreasing, and subsequently increasing again, with 2018 and 2021 as turning points ( P<0.05). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant spatial clustering of pertussis cases in Tianjin districts in 2017 ( Moran′s I=0.19) and 2023 ( Moran′s I=0.51), with both P<0.05. The spatial-temporal scan analysis identified nine high-incidence clusters, with the primary cluster occurring in 2023, covering Jinnan, Dongli, and Hexi districts ( RR=7.37, LLR=568.21, P<0.001). In summary, the incidence of pertussis in Tianjin City has shown an upward trend from 2010 to 2024. The epidemiological characteristics have significantly changed around 2020, with pronounced seasonal and spatial clustering patterns observed in the past two years.
