The burden of noncommunicable chronic diseases attributable to metabolic factors in China from 1990 to 2021 and projections of mortality trends
10.3760/cma.j.cn311282-20250326-00160
- VernacularTitle:1990年至2021年中国归因于代谢因素的慢性非传染性疾病的疾病负担状况及死亡率趋势预测
- Author:
Bowen ZHANG
1
;
Yuhong HUANG
;
Xi DU
;
Hongrui CHEN
;
Wei MU
;
Yanjun SUN
;
Shengwei GAO
;
Zichen LYU
;
Rongkun XUE
;
Xiaohui YU
Author Information
1. 天津中医药大学第二附属医院临床药理中心，天津 300250
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Metabolic factors;
Noncommunicable chronic disease;
Disease burden;
Trend prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism
2025;41(9):761-768
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the burden and trends of noncommunicable chronic disease(NCD) attributable to metabolic factors in China from 1990 to 2021.Methods:Data from the Global Burden of Diseases(GBD) 2021 database were utilized to describe changes in mortality and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) of NCD in China from 1990 to 2021. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, sociodemographic index(SDI), and related risk factors. Statistical analyses and predictions were conducted using the age-period-cohort model and the Nordpred model.Results:In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of NCD attributable to metabolic factors in China were 227.56 per 100 000 and 4 829.39 per 100 000, respectively. Their average annual percentage changes were -0.76%( P<0.001) and -0.77%( P<0.001). Overall, the burden decreased progressively with higher SDI levels. Analysis using the age-period-cohort model indicated reduced birth cohort and period effects for metabolic factor-attributable NCD, while age effects rose significantly. The minimum relative risk( RR) value was observed in the 15-19 age group( RR=0.01), and the maximum RR value occurred in the 95-99 age group( RR=996.86). The overall rising mortality trend indicated that age effects are the predominant driver at present. Projections estimate that by 2046, deaths from metabolic factor-attributable NCD in China will reach 8 189 563, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 236.95 per 100 000. Conclusions:China continues to face a substantial burden of NCD linked to metabolic factors, with older adults, males, and individuals with hypertension, diabetes, and prediabetes identified as key populations requiring targeted interventions.
