Predictive value of growth differentiation factor 15 for atrial fibrillation in elderly patients with coronary heart disease
10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2025.09.011
- VernacularTitle:生长分化因子15在老年冠心病人群发生心房颤动事件的预测价值
- Author:
Hunan XIAO
1
;
Lü LÜ
;
Cui XU
;
Xiaofan WANG
;
Li SHENG
;
Guojuan TAN
;
Feng TIAN
;
Hongbin LIU
Author Information
1. 100853 北京,解放军总医院第二医学中心心血管内科国家老年疾病临床研究中心
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
growth differentiation factor 15;
atrial fibrillation;
angina,stable
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases
2025;27(9):1183-1187
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the predictive value of growth differentiation factor 15(GDF-15)for atrial fibrillation(AF)in patients with coronary heart disease(CHD).Methods A prospective observation cohort of 1261 elderly CHD patients was randomly sampled from the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 2012 to December 2015.ELISA was used to detect GDF-15 level in all the subjects,and their baseline data were collected.Until March 2023,93 patients were lost during the follow-up period,and finally 1168 patients completed the follow-up,with a median time of 9.4 years.According to AF occurred or not during the period,the eligible patients were divided into an AF group(197 cases)and a non-AF group(971 cases),and based on their medical history,also assigned into a stable angina pectoris(SAP,n=304)and an acute coronary syndrome group(ACS,n=864).Logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether GDF-15 is a risk factor for AF in elderly CHD patients.ROC curve was plotted to assess the predictive value of GDF-15,guideline recommended CHARGE-AF scoring model,and their combination for AF events in the patients.Results The AF group had significantly advanced age,larger proportions of smoking history,type 2 diabetes,hypertension,old myocardial infarction,stroke,ACS and administration of statins,higher ratio of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibi-tor/angiotensin receptor blocker,and elevated levels of GDF-15 and N-terminal pro-B-type natri-uretic peptide,and lower left ventricular ejection fraction,SAP incidence,and low-density lipopro-tein cholesterol,total cholesterol and triglycerides levels when compared with the non-AF group(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that GDF-15 was not a risk factor for AF in elderly CHD patients(OR=0.92,95％CI:0.74-1.16,P=0.489),but was a risk factor for AF in SAP patients(OR=1.38,95％CI:1.07-2.79,P=0.015),and in ACS patients,still not a risk factor for AF(OR=0.81,95％CI:0.63-1.05,P=0.814).ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC value of GDF-15 combined with the CHARGE-AF scoring model in predic-ting AF was 0.682 in the elderly CHD patients,0.746 in the SAP patients,and 0.680 in the ACS patients.Conclusion Elevated GDF-15 level is an independent risk factor and predictor of AF in elderly SAP patients.In SAP patients,the combination of GDF-15 and CHARGE-AF scoring model further improves the predictive performance of AF occurrence.
