Application of multi-state Markov models to analyze transition of homosexual behavior in men who have sex with men and influencing factors in Shandong Province
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241202-00764
- VernacularTitle:基于多状态马尔科夫模型分析山东省男男性行为者同性性行为的转移规律及影响因素
- Author:
Wenqi FAN
1
;
Yuxi LIN
;
Guoyong WANG
;
Meizhen LIAO
;
Wei MA
;
Kedi JIAO
Author Information
1. 山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系，济南 250012
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Men who have sex with men;
Risk sexual behavior;
Unprotected anal sex;
Multi-state Markov model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2025;46(5):820-825
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the transition patterns of anal sex and unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), estimate the transition intensity and probability, and identify factors influencing the transition patterns in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shandong Province.Methods:In August 2019, MSM aged ≥18 years old were recruited as subjects from 11 cities in Shandong Province. The baseline survey were completed in December 2019, and followup surveys were conducted once every 3 mouths from June 2020 to March 2021. Time-continuous, state-discrete multi-state reversible Markov model was constructed based on the status of MSM's sexual behaviors with different types of sexual partners [anal sex occurred or not (S1=No, S2=Yes) and UAI occurred or not (S1=No,S2=Yes)] to analyze the transition patterns and the influencing factors.Results:A total of 735 MSM were included. The transition intensity of starting anal sex with stable and casual partners was 1.935 times and 0.595 times higher than that of discontinuing this behavior, respectively. While the transition intensity to start UAI with stable and casual partners was 0.430 times and 0.169 times higher than that of discontinuing it, respectively. During the follow-up, the transition probabilities of anal sex and UAI with both stable and casual partners increased first and then stabilized. For stable partners, the transition probability of starting anal sex was higher than that of discontinuing it at the same period, for casual partners, it was just the reverse. For both stable and casual partners, the transition probabilities of discontinuing UAI were higher than starting it at the same time. The results of multivariate analysis showed that participants who received intervention materials ( HR=1.47), had an associate degree ( HR=1.77) or a bachelor's degree and above ( HR=1.47) were at higher risk of starting anal sex with stable partners. Those who received intervention materials ( HR=1.39) were at higher risk of discontinuing anal sex with stable partners, while participants identified themselves as non-male gender ( HR=0.49) were at lower risk of discontinuing anal sex with stable partners. Participants received intervention materials ( HR=1.75) were at higher risk of starting UAI with stable partners. Those who lived apart, divorced, or widowed ( HR=3.22) were at higher risk of starting UAI with casual partners, whereas had a bachelor's degree and above ( HR=0.58) were at lower risk of starting UAI with casual partners. Participants identified themselves as non-male gender ( HR=0.45) at lower risk of discounting UAI with casual partners. Conclusions:The transition patterns of homosexual behavior in MSM are different. Marital status, gender identity, educational level and other factors are the influencing factors of sexual behavior status transitions. Future researches should develop targeted interventions for different types of sexual partners and characteristics of MSM.
