Analysis of survival influencing factors for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy and construction of nomogram prediction model
10.3760/cma.j.cn115355-20250708-00335
- VernacularTitle:食管鳞状细胞癌患者调强放疗后生存影响因素分析及列线图预测模型构建
- Author:
Zhetao MI
1
;
Qi LI
Author Information
1. 山西省肿瘤医院 中国医学科学院肿瘤医院山西医院 山西医科大学附属肿瘤医院放疗中心，太原 030013
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Esophageal neoplasms;
Carcinoma, squamous cell;
Intensity-modulated radiotherapy;
Prognosis;
Nomogram
- From:
Cancer Research and Clinic
2025;37(9):684-689
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy and construct the nomogram prediction model.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted. The data of 130 patients with newly diagnosed esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who received intensity-modulated radiotherapy at Shanxi Province Cancer Hospital from February 2016 to June 2018 were collected. Cox regression analysis was used to screen the independent influencing factors for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The nomogram models for predicting the 1-year and 2-year OS rates and PFS rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients after intensity-modulated radiotherapy were constructed based on the screened independent influencing factors. The calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate the consistency and efficacy of the nomogram prediction model. Bootstrap method (B = 500 times) was used for internal validation.Results:The median age of 130 patients was 59 years old, including 90 males and 40 females; esophageal lesions of 10 cases were located in the neck, 34 cases were in the upper chest, 55 cases were in the middle chest, and 31 cases were in the lower chest; clinical staging: 3 cases were stage Ⅰ, 37 cases were stage Ⅱ, 79 cases were stage Ⅲ, and 11 cases were stage Ⅳ. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the clinical staging and gross tumor volume (GTV) were independent factors affecting OS and PFS in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy (both P < 0.01). The nomogram models for predicting the 1-year and 2-year PFS rates and OS rates of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy were construct based on the clinical staging and GTV. The calibration curves showed good consistency between the predicted results of the model and the actual observed results. The Bootstrap method and ROC curves internal validation results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.832 for predicting 1-year OS rate, 0.838 for predicting 2-year OS rate, 0.829 for predicting 1-year PFS rate, and 0.900 for predicting 2-year PFS rate. Conclusions:Clinical staging and GTV are independent influencing factors of OS and PFS in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy. The nomogram models constructed based on these two factors can be used to predict the survival prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy.
