Study on the association between compound hot extremes and fall death risk in three provinces of southern China
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00570
- VernacularTitle:中国南方三省份日夜复合热与跌倒死亡风险的关联研究
- Author:
Linlin XIE
1
;
Jiamei ZENG
;
Jie WAN
;
Zihang TANG
;
Ruilin MENG
;
Chunliang ZHOU
;
Min YU
;
Yi LIN
;
Weiquan ZENG
;
Wenjun MA
;
Guanhao HE
Author Information
1. 暨南大学基础医学与公共卫生学院预防医学系，广州 510632
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Compound hot extremes;
Fall;
Climate change;
Case-crossover study
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2025;46(4):581-586
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk fall death associated with compound hot extremes.Methods:This study collected data on fall deaths in Guangdong, Hunan, and Zhejiang Provinces from 2013 to 2018 and matched their exposure to meteorological data. Based on a time-stratified case-crossover design, a conditional logistic regression model embedded with a cross-basis function of the distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to estimate the risk of fall to death due to compound hot extremes.Results:Compared with regular days, compound hot extremes significantly increased the risk of death from falls ( OR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.09-1.30), and women ( OR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.11-1.45) and the elderly age 65 and above ( OR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.12-1.39) were more sensitive to compound hot extremes. The maximum duration of compound hot extremes was 7 days, and the maximum intensity was 6.2 ℃, and the duration and intensity were proportional to the risk of death from falls. The risk of death from falls increased by 12% ( OR=1.12, 95% CI: 1.06-1.18) each day, increasing in duration after linearization. The risk of death from falls increased by 16% ( OR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22) for each 1 ℃ increase in linearized intensity. Conclusion:Compound hot extremes increase the risk of death cases from falls.
