Construction of a risk prediction model for knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy in patients with tibial plateau fractures
10.3760/cma.j.cn115455-20241204-01080
- VernacularTitle:胫骨平台骨折患者关节镜术后膝关节僵直的风险预测模型构建
- Author:
Shuaishuai GAO
1
;
Yanjun WANG
1
;
Yongfeng YAO
1
;
Qun ZHOU
1
Author Information
1. 西安大兴医院骨科，西安 710003
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Tibial fractures;
Arthroscopes;
Nomograms;
Knee joint
- From:
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine
2025;48(9):831-837
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of knee joint stiffness in patients with tibial plateau fractures after arthroscopy and construct a predictive model.Methods:The clinical data of 154 patients with tibial plateau fractures from June 2020 to May 2023 in Xi'an Daxing Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were treated with arthroscopic assisted internal fixation surgery. The gender, age, body weight, fracture cause, Schatzker classification, osteoporosis, meniscus and ligament structure injury, lower limb malalignment, bone graft, knee extension device injury, internal fixation method, external fixation time, heterotopic ossification, Tscherne classification, drainage tube placement, debridement times, operation opportunity and anesthesia method were recorded. The patients were followed up for 1 year, and the occurrence of knee joint stiffness was recorded. The patients were divided into knee joint stiffness group and normal knee joint group. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors of knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy in patients with tibial plateau fractures. R language software package was used to construct the nomogram model for predicting the knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy in patients with tibial plateau fractures, calibration curve was drawn, and the Bootstrap method was used to verify the model discrimination. The predictive value of model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.Results:Among 154 patients with tibial plateau fractures, 28 patients developed knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy (knee joint stiffness group), with an incidence rate of 18.18%; 126 patients had normal knee joints (normal knee joint group). The proportions of obesity, meniscus and ligament structure injury, knee extension device injury, lower limb malalignment and heterotopic ossification in knee joint stiffness group were significantly higher than those in normal knee joint group, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05 or <0.01); there were no statistical differences in gender composition, age, fracture cause, osteoporosis, Schatzker classification, bone graft, internal fixation method, external fixation time, Tscherne classification, drainage tube placement, debridement times, operation opportunity and anesthesia method between the two groups ( P>0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis result showed that obesity, meniscus and ligament structure injury, knee extension device injury, lower limb malalignment and heterotopic ossification were independent risk factors for knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy in patients with tibial plateau fractures ( OR = 5.387, 4.613, 3.308, 3.178 and 4.579; 95% CI 1.207 to 24.034, 1.447 to 14.709, 1.063 to 10.291, 1.155 to 8.745 and 1.540 to 13.613; P<0.05 or <0.01). The body weight, meniscus and ligament structure injury, knee extension device injury, lower limb malalignment and heterotopic ossification were used as predictors to construct a nomogram model for predicting the knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy in patients with tibial plateau fractures. The calibration curve analysis result showed that the theoretical curve was basically consistent with the actual curve trend trajectory ( C- index = 0.861). The ROC curve analysis result showed that the model for predicting the knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy in patients with tibial plateau fractures had good accuracy (area under curve was 0.861), with the sensitivity of 92.9% and specificity of 73.0%. Conclusions:The patients with tibial plateau fractures have the risk of knee joint stiffness after arthroscopy, which may be related to patient obesity, meniscus and ligament structure injury, knee extension device injury, lower limb malalignment and heterotopic ossification. Based on these risk factors, a column chart risk prediction model can be constructed to visualize the risk and have certain predictive value for knee joint stiffness within 1 year after surgery.
