Incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of lung cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2021
10.3760/cma.j.cn112152-20240920-00406
- VernacularTitle:江苏省启东市1972—2021年肺癌发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析
- Author:
Jun XU
1
;
Yongsheng CHEN
;
Jun WANG
;
Jian ZHU
;
Yuexia GAO
Author Information
1. 南通大学公共卫生学院，南通226019
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Lung neoplasms;
Incidence rate;
Epidemic trends;
Age-period-cohort model;
Qidong
- From:
Chinese Journal of Oncology
2025;47(11):1066-1073
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To describe the epidemiological characteristics and trends of lung cancer incidence in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, China, between 1972 and 2021, and provide guidelines for prevention and control.Methods:Data on lung cancer with onset from January 1, 1972 to December 31, 2021 and coded as C33-C34 in the International Classification of Diseases (10th edition) were extracted from the tumor registry database of Qidong City. Population data of Qidong City for each year from 1972 to 2021 were extracted from the annual report of household registration of the Public Security Bureau of Qidong City. The crude incidence rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (ASRC), world age-standardized rate (ASRW), 35-64 years truncated rate, 0-74 years cumulative rate, and cumulative risk were calculated. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated by Joinpoint software for CR, ASRC, and ASRW. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the influence of age, period, and birth cohort on the changes in the incidence trend of lung cancer.Results:From 1972 to 2021, there were 26 996 patients of lung cancer in Qidong, accounting for 18.30% (26 996/147 519) of all cancer new cases. The CR of lung cancer was 48.13/10 5, the ASRC was 29.65/10 5, and the ASRW was 29.67/10 5. The truncated incidence of 35-64 years old was 42.64/10 5, the cumulative incidence rate between the ages between 0-74 years old was 3.71%, and the cumulative risk was 3.64%. There were 18 572 male patients, with the CR, ASRC, and ASRW being 67.15/10 5, 43.82/10 5, and 43.87/10 5, respectively. The number of female patients was 8 424, and the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 29.62/10 5, 17.63/10 5, and 17.55/10 5, respectively. Temporal analysis indicated significant upward trends in the ASRCs for both genders combined, males, and females, with AAPC values of 2.21%, 1.76%, and 2.98% (all P<0.001), respectively. Age-specific incidence rates increased with age, peaking at 275.34/10 5 in the 75+ years age group, with an increasing trend in all age groups and the greatest increase in the 75+ years age group, with an AAPC value of 3.53% ( P<0.001). The results of the APC model showed that the net drift value of lung cancer incidence was 2.06% (95% CI: 1.72%-2.41%), and the highest value of local drift was 3.93% (95% CI: 3.20%-4.68%) in the 80+ years old group. The risk of cancer increases with age in the age effect. The period effect of the incidence rate ratio (RR) value increased from 1.12 during 1997-2001 to 2.09 during 2017-2021. The cohort effect of the RR value for risk of incidence increased from 0.17 during 1892-1896 to 2.54 during 1987-1991. Conclusions:From 1972 to 2021, the incidence rate of lung cancer in Qidong City showed an upward trend. Age, period, and cohort are all major factors influencing the incidence of lung cancer. It is necessary to develop precise and comprehensive prevention and control strategies to curb this increasing trend of lung cancer incidence.
