Analysis on the incidence trend of liver cancer in Taizhou, Jiangsu Province, 2012-2020
10.3760/cma.j.cn112152-20231024-00220
- VernacularTitle:江苏省泰州市2012—2020年肝癌发病情况及变化趋势
- Author:
Haiyan LU
1
;
Xiaolan ZHAO
;
Tingting SHI
;
Luojia DAI
;
Dekun ZHANG
;
Yuxue YANG
;
Xin HUANG
;
Tiejun ZHANG
;
Shunzhang YU
;
Xiang ZHANG
Author Information
1. 泰州市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染病防制科，泰州 225300
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Liver neoplasms;
Incidence;
Joinpoint regression;
Taizhou
- From:
Chinese Journal of Oncology
2025;47(9):867-871
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the changes in the incidence trend of liver cancer in Taizhou of Jiangsu Province, from 2012 to 2020 and provide reference for tumor prevention and control and management.Methods:Liver cancer incidence data from 2012 to 2020 were extracted from the Taizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention's tumor registry system. Demographic data were used to calculate the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), Chinese age-standardized incidence rate (CASIR; based on China's 2010 standard population), and world age-standardized incidence rate (WASIR; based on Segi's world standard population). The Joinpoint regression model was applied to identify inflection points in liver cancer incidence trends during 2012-2020, and annual percentage change (APC) with average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated.Results:In 2020, the crude incidence ratio (CIR) of liver cancer in Taizhou was 34.6 per 100 000, with CASIR and WASIR at 19.6 per 100 000 and 14.9 per 100 000, respectively. From 2012 to 2020, the male-to-female ratio of new liver cancer cases was 2.94∶1 (10 455 males vs. 3 559 females), with male incidence consistently higher than female. Overall liver cancer incidence in Taizhou initially increased and then decreased after 2017 (2012-2017: APC=6.4%, P=0.014; 2017-2020: APC=-9.5%, P=0.035), peaking at a CASIR of 26.2 per 100 000 in 2017. The trend in male incidence mirrored the overall pattern, rising before 2017 and declining thereafter (2012-2017: APC=6.2%, P=0.005; 2017-2020: APC=-9.0%, P=0.016). Female incidence remained relatively stable (2012-2016: APC=11.0%, P=0.054; 2016-2020: APC=-6.5%, P=0.130). Conclusions:Liver cancer incidence in Taizhou increased before 2017 and declined thereafter, with 2017 as the turning point. Amid population aging, liver cancer remains a persistent public health challenge requiring sustained attention.
