Trend analysis and prediction of disease burden of Alzheimer's disease attributable to high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-9026.2025.10.007
- VernacularTitle:高体质指数和高空腹血糖归因的阿尔茨海默病疾病负担趋势及预测研究
- Author:
Wenqi SHI
1
;
Kaiyue ZHANG
;
Changqing XU
;
Chuanhua YU
;
Fang WANG
Author Information
1. 徐州医科大学公共卫生学院，徐州 221004
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Alzheimer's disease;
Burden of disease;
Risk factors;
Prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics
2025;44(10):1363-1370
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To understand the trends of the disease burden of Alzheimer's disease(AD)attributable to high body mass index(BMI)and high fasting plasma glucose(FPG)in the past 30 years and future trends in China, and to provide suggestions for the prevention and treatment of AD.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease Research Database(GBD), data on AD deaths and disability adjusted life years(DALYs)attributable to high BMI and high FPG were collected from 1990 to 2021 in Chinese and global populations.The Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to explore and compare the changing trends of AD burden in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was constructed for predictive analysis.Results:In 2021, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates of AD attributed to high BMI in the Chinese population were 1.256/100, 000 and 24.751/100, 000, respectively, and those attributed to high FPG were 3.636/100, 000 and 66.721/100, 000, respectively.The age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs of females were both higher than those of males.From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs of AD attributed to high BMI increased slowly at first and then rapidly in China, the corresponding average annual percent change(AAPC)and 95% confidence interval(95% CI)were 9.87%(9.63%-10.12%), and 9.81%(9.54%-10.09%), respectively( P<0.001). The age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs of AD caused by high FPG showed a fluctuating upward trend, with AAPC of 0.29%(95% CI: 0.17%-0.41%)and 0.53%(95% CI: 0.45%-0.61%), respectively( P<0.001). It is predicted that by 2030, the age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs of AD attributed to high BMI and high FPG in the whole population of China will increase to 4.87/100 000 and 97.20/100 000, both lower than the global level(5.45/100 000 and 100.24/100 000). In addition to a slight decline in the age-standardized mortality rate in Chinese men, the age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs attributed to high BMI and high FPG in Chinese women and the global population will both show an upward trend. Conclusions:The burden of AD attributed to high BMI and high FPG is relatively severe, with gender differences, and is expected to increase slightly by 2030.It is recommended that early identification of key high-risk populations of AD should be strengthened, especially for the elderly and female groups.Interventions targeting modifiable risk factors should be carried out, and effective measures should be adopted to reduce the burden of AD.
