Risk factors analysis and predictive model construction for atrial high-rate episodes after cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure
10.3760/cma.j.cn114798-20250411-00310
- VernacularTitle:心力衰竭患者心脏再同步化治疗术后发生心房高频事件的影响因素分析与预测模型构建
- Author:
Ping LI
1
;
Xiaoyan LIU
1
;
Yongming HE
1
;
Xiaofeng CHENG
1
Author Information
1. 陆军军医大学第二附属医院心血管内科，重庆 400037
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Heart failure;
Cardiac resynchronization therapy;
Forecasting model;
Atrial high-rate episodes
- From:
Chinese Journal of General Practitioners
2025;24(6):722-727
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for atrial high-rate episodes (AHRE) following cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and construct a predictive model for the occurrence of AHRE.Methods:This was a case-control study. Patients who received CRT treatment for heart failure in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Second Affiliated Hospital of Army Military Medical University from January 2017 to December 2020 were selected and divided into AHRE group and non-AHRE group according to whether AHRE occurred during the follow-up period. Baseline clinical data were collected. Patients were followed up regularly after CRT or cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator (CRT-D) implantation until August 31, 2022. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors influencing the occurrence of AHRE in patients with heart failure treated with CRT, and a nomogram prediction model was established. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the nomogram model, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the consistency of the prediction model.Results:A total of 198 patients, aged (62±8) years, 138 (69.7%) males, were enrolled, of whom 52 (26.3%) patients developed AHRE (AHRE group) and 146 (73.7%) had no AHRE (non-AHRE group) during the follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age, coronary heart disease, C-reactive protein, left atrial volume, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were independent influencing factors of heart failure patients developing AHRE after CRT surgery (all P<0.05). A nomogram prediction model was constructed by combining 5 indicators: age, coronary heart disease, C-reactive protein, left atrial volume, and LVEF. In this model, a score of 4 was assigned for age ≥65 years, 4 for coronary heart disease, 4 for C-reactive protein ≥10 ng/ml, 20 for left atrial volume ≥35 ml, and 5 for LVEF ≤30%. The total score was obtained by accumulating the scores of each indicator, and the probability of heart failure patients developing AHRE after CRT surgery was predicted based on the total score. The area under the curve of the nomogram prediction model constructed in this study for predicting AHRE in heart failure patients after CRT surgery was 0.830 (95% CI: 0.795-0.866). The incidence of AHRE predicted by the model was basically consistent with the actual incidence of AHRE. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good calibration of the model ( χ2=6.32, P=0.612). Conclusions:Age, coronary heart disease, C-reactive protein, left atrial volume, and LVEF are all independent risk factors for AHRE after CRT treatment. The nomogram prediction model based on the above factors can effectively predict the risk of AHRE in patients with heart failure after CRT, and the ROC curve and consistency test both show good prediction efficiency and consistency.
