Systematic review of the risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary infection in elderly patients with hip fractures
10.3760/cma.j.cn501098-20250302-00114
- VernacularTitle:老年髋部骨折患者术后并发肺部感染风险预测模型的系统评价
- Author:
Feifei HAN
1
;
Jing TIAN
;
Lingyan QIAO
;
Haili YIN
;
Xing WEI
;
Lili FENG
Author Information
1. 航天中心医院外科五病房，北京 100049
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Aged;
Hip fractures;
Pneumonia
- From:
Chinese Journal of Trauma
2025;41(7):675-681
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To systematically review the risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary infection in elderly patients with hip fractures.Methods:PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang Database and VIP Database were systematically searched to collect literature on the risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary infection in elderly patients with hip fractures from inception to June 30, 2024. The languages were limited to Chinese and English. Two researchers screened the literature according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data extraction was performed using the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling studies (CHARMS), encompassing basic study characteristics, model development features, and model performance metrics. The predictors, validation methods, presentation formats, and predictive performance of the risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary infection in elderly patients with hip fractures were evaluated. The prediction model risk-of-bias assessment tool (PROBAST) was employed to assess risk of bias and applicability of the included studies.Results:A total of 11 studies, comprising of 16 prediction models, were included, with a total sample size of 283-1 508 patients and a pulmonary infection incidence rate of 5.4%-16.25%. The independent predictive factors repeatedly included in the models were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scale, preoperative comorbidities, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), preoperative albumin level, white blood cell count (WBC), and C-reactive protein (CRP) level. The models were internally validated in 7 studies and externally validated in 3. The models were visualized in the form of a nomogram in 7 studies and a web-based risk calculator in 1. Model prediction performance was analyzed: (1) In terms of the discrimination, 9 studies reported the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), with the overall AUC range of 0.664-0.905. (2) In terms of the calibration, 5 studies had Hosmer-Lemeshow test, with the P-values all above 0.05; 2 studies reported the calibration plots, with the slopes close to 1 and the Brier scores of 0.016 and 0.112; 4 studies reported the sensitivity of the models of 73.91%-92.40% and specificity of 57.10%-92.41%. According to PROBAST, all 11 studies exhibited certain risk of bias while maintaining favorable applicability. Conclusions:Age, ASA scale, preoperative comorbidities, COPD, preoperative albumin level, WBC, and CRP level are found to be independent predictive factors repeatedly reported in the risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary infection in elderly patients with hip fractures. The existing models demonstrate a robust overall prediction performance despite certain risks of bias.
