Analysis and prediction of the 50-year incidence trend of malignant tumors in the elderly of Qidong City
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-9026.2025.04.020
- VernacularTitle:启东市老年人群恶性肿瘤50年发病趋势分析与预测
- Author:
Mingbo JIANG
1
;
Jian ZHU
;
Yongsheng CHEN
;
Jun WANG
;
Yonghui ZHANG
;
Lulu DING
;
Yuanyou XU
;
Jianguo CHEN
;
Jian MAO
Author Information
1. 南通大学附属启东医院肿瘤科 启东市人民医院 启东肝癌防治研究所，启东 226200
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Neoplasms;
Incidence;
Forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics
2025;44(4):531-537
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the incidence trends of malignant tumors in the elderly population aged over 60 years in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, as well as to predict the incidence rate for the next decade.Methods:Data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry and Reporting System.The crude incidence rate(CR), age-standardized incidence rate using the Chinese standard population(ASRC), and age-standardized incidence rate based on Segi's world standard population(ASRW)were calculated.Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to determine the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in incidence.Additionally, the ARIMA model implemented in SAS 9.2 software was utilized for time series analysis to forecast incidence trends over the forthcoming 10 years.Results:In Qidong City, a total of 87, 401 malignant tumors were reported in the elderly population.The ASRW increased from 736.85 per 100, 000 in the years 1972-1976 to 1 056.33 per 100, 000 in 2017-2021.Specifically, the ASRW for males rose from 968.56 per 100, 000 to 1 332.75 per 100, 000, while the ASRW for females increased from 550.62 per 100, 000 to 825.44 per 100, 000, with AAPC values of 1.16%, 0.94%, and 1.44% over 50 years(all P<0.001).The incidence trend exhibited an upward trajectory with age, peaking in the 75-79 age group.The AAPC values for the incidence rates in the age groups of 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and those aged over 80 were 0.64%, 0.93%, 0.92%, 2.02%, and 2.44%, respectively(all P<0.001).Among the various cancers, lung cancer, which ranked first, saw an increase in ASRW from 100.87 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 248.84 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.In contrast, gastric cancer, ranked second, decreased from 216.23 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 103.54 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Liver cancer, ranked third, fluctuated from 113.47 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 125.13 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Colorectal cancer, ranked fourth, increased from 40.06 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 123.47 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021, while esophageal cancer, ranked fifth, decreased from 63.42 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 28.65 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.The AAPC values over 50 years for these cancers were 2.25%, -1.89%, 0.36%, 3.13%, and -1.86%, respectively(all P<0.05).Projections indicate that by 2031, the incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong will reach 1 253.84 per 100, 000, with estimates of 1 566.67 per 100, 000 for males and 983.14 per 100, 000 for females. Conclusions:The incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong City is increasing.Common types of cancer in this demographic include lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and esophageal cancer.Notably, lung cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer are on the rise and should be prioritized in cancer prevention and control efforts.
