Risk factors for secondary heart failure in children with severe pneumonia and establishment of prediction model
10.11816/cn.ni.2025-250853
- VernacularTitle:儿童重症肺炎继发心力衰竭的危险因素及预测模型构建
- Author:
Yan MA
1
;
Hui MENG
1
;
Mingfeng SHAN
1
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学附属儿童医院感染科,江苏南京 210008
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Severe pneumonia;
Heart failure;
Risk factor;
Prediction model;
Child
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology
2025;35(22):3420-3425
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To explore the influencing factors for secondary heart failure in the children with severe pneumonia and establish the nomogram prediction model.METHODS A total of 767 children with severe pneumo-nia who were treated in Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from Mar.2018 to Mar.2024 were en-rolled in the study and were divided into the modeling group with 537 cases and the validation group with 230 ca-ses in a 7∶3 ratio.Meanwhile,127 children with severe pneumonia who were treated from Apr.2024 to Dec.2024 were chosen as the external validation group.The children of the modeling group were divided into the heart failure group with 56 cases and the non-heart failure group with 481 cases according to the status of secondary heart fail-ure.The clinical data were collected from the children.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for the influencing factors for the secondary heart failure in the children with severe pneumonia,the prediction model for secondary heart failure in the severe pneumonia children was established with the use of R software.The effica-cy of the model in prediction of secondary heart failure in the children with severe pneumonia was analyzed by means of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)fitting test.RESULTS The critically ill case score(OR=8.847,95％CI:3.806 to 20.566),persistent pulmonary arterial hypertension(OR=5.557,95％CI:2.450 to 12.604),respiratory failure(OR=2.646,95％CI:1.066 to 6.567),coagulation dysfunction(OR=13.444,95％CI:5.790 to 31.219)and procalcitonin(PCT)(OR=8.103,95％CI:3.466 to 18.943)were the influencing factors for the secondary heart failure in the children with severe pneumonia(P＜0.05).The area under the ROC curve of the validation group was 0.962,the external validation group 0.973;the H-L test showed that the prediction model had high consistency and discrimination for the secondary heart fail-ure in the children with severe pneumonia.CONCLUSIONS The critically ill case score,persistent pulmonary arte-rial hypertension,respiratory failure,coagulation dysfunction and PCT level are the influencing factors for the sec-ondary heart failure in the children with severe pneumonia.The prediction model that is established based on the influencing factors shows high efficiency.
