Construction of tumor-specific mortality risk prediction model for advanced endometrial carcinoma patients
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.32.007
- VernacularTitle:晚期子宫内膜癌患者肿瘤特异性死亡风险预测模型构建
- Author:
Xiaojia YU
1
;
Xinyan WANG
;
Jinyan FANG
;
Lexing ZHANG
;
Wanglei QU
Author Information
1. 浙江中医药大学第四临床医学院杭州市第一人民医院妇科,浙江 杭州 310006
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Advanced endometrial carcinoma;
Cancer-specific;
Risk prediction
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(32):28-32
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of tumor-specific mortality in patients with advanced endometrial carcinoma and construct a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 150 patients with advanced endometrial carcinoma admitted to the Fourth Clinical College of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University,Hangzhou First People's Hospital from January 2020 to January 2023 were selected as subjects.Cox regression was employed to analyze factors influencing mortality in advanced endometrial carcinoma.A Logistic regression model was constructed,with receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve used to evaluate model discrimination,calibration curve for precision assessment,and decision curve for net benefit evaluation.Results Overall 2-year survival rate of 150 patients was 58.67％.The univariate analysis demonstrated that histological grade,lymph node metastasis,tumor maximum diameter,and preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels were all significant risk factors for mortality in advanced endometrial carcinoma(P＜0.05).Multivariate analysis confirmed these parameters as independent prognostic indicators(P＜0.05).A Logistic regression model established using multivariate Cox regression yielded a C index of 0.873(95％CI:0.792-0.951).ROC curve analysis revealed the model's area under the curve for predicting mortality risk factors in advanced endometrial carcinoma was 0.916(95％CI:0.872-0.960).Conclusion The linear chart prediction model constructed based on histological grading,lymph node metastasis,maximum tumor diameter and preoperative CA125 level in this study can effectively predict the death of advanced endometrial carcinoma.
