Risk factors and risk prediction for the course of lobar pneumonia in children
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.22.007
- VernacularTitle:儿童大叶性肺炎病程的危险因素及风险预测
- Author:
Ni ZHOU
1
;
Qiang GU
Author Information
1. 石河子大学医学院,新疆石河子 832008
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Lobar pneumonia;
Risk factor;
Nomogram;
Children
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(22):26-30,35
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the risk factors influencing the course of lobar pneumonia in children and construct a nomogram model.Methods A total of 552 hospitalized children diagnosed with lobar pneumonia in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University from January 2018 to June 2024 were selected as research subjects.According to the length of hospital stay,they were divided into long-course group(≥ 10 days,160 cases)and short-course group(＜10 days,392 cases).The clinical data of two groups of children were statistically analyzed.Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors influencing the length of hospital stay of children with lobar pneumonia.A nomogram model was constructed and verified.Results The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that heat peak,lactate dehydrogenase(LDH),mixed infection,and pulmonary complications were all independent risk factors affecting the hospital stay of children with lobar pneumonia(P＜0.05),bronchoalveolar lavage was a protective factor for hospital stay of children with lobar pneumonia(P＜0.05).The nomogram model was constructed,and areas under the curves of the training set and the test set were 0.915 and 0.898,respectively.The calibration curve of the nomogram drawn by the Bootstrap method basically matches the actual curve.The clinical decision curve showed that the nomogram model could achieve clinical net benefits when the threshold was between 0.010 and 0.890.Conclusion Mixed pathogen infections,intrapulmonary complications,elevated LDH,and high fever are independent risk factors for prolonged hospitalization(≥ 10 days)in children with lobar pneumonia.The constructed nomogram model exhibits excellent discriminative ability,calibration,and clinical utility.
