Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Model Analysis of Inci-dence and Mortality of Hepatitis B Virus-Related Liver Cancer Globally and in China from 1992 to 2021
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.09.A002
- VernacularTitle:1992-2021年全球及中国乙型肝炎病毒相关肝癌发病和死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析
- Author:
Yongfeng YAN
1
;
Yaqin ZHANG
1
;
Chunsun FAN
1
;
Jun WANG
1
;
Yuanyou XU
1
;
Xiaoxia ZHU
1
;
Jian ZHU
1
Author Information
1. 启东市人民医院/启东肝癌防治研究所/南通大学附属启东医院,江苏启东 226200
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
liver cancer;
hepatitis B virus;
Joinpoint;
age-period-cohort model;
China;
globe
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(9):698-705
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the changing trends of the disease burden of liver cancer related to hepatitis B virus(HBV)globally and in China from 1992 to 2021.[Methods]Based on the Global Burden of Disease database in 2021,indicators such as the age-standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China from 1992 to 2021 were collected.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trends of epidemiologi-cal characteristics,and the age-period-cohort model was adopted to analyze the impacts of age,period,and cohort factors on the incidence and mortality risks of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China.[Results]From 1992 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer globally generally showed a trend of decreasing.The average annual percentage changes were-0.31％and-0.61％,respectively,and all the down-ward trends were statistically significant(both P＜0.05).During the same period,the average annu-al percentage changes of the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer in China were-0.45％and-0.90％,respectively,and all the downward trends were statistically significant(both P＜0.05).The results of the age-period-cohort model anal-ysis showed that from 1992 to 2021,the annual net drift rates of the incidence of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China were-0.71％(95％CI:-0.84％～-0.57％)and-0.73％(95％CI:-1.01％～-0.44％),respectively.The annual net drift rates of the mortality were-1.15％(95％CI:-1.28％～-1.02％)and-1.42％(95％CI:-1.69％～-1.14％),respectively,all showing an over-all decline.The age effect showed that the risk of HBV-related liver cancer incidence in both the global and Chinese populations began to increase after 30 years of age,peaking in the 70～74 age group,while the risk of mortality surged after 40 years of age and peaked in the population aged 80 and above.The period effect indicated that the incidence and mortality risks were the highest from 1997 to 2001 and the lowest from 2017 to 2021.The cohort effect revealed that the inci-dence and mortality risks gradually decreased in populations born after 1962,with the 2007-2011 birth cohort having the lowest risks.The results of the Wald x2 test showed that there were statistically significant differences in the changing trends of the age,period,and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China(all P＜0.05).[Con-clusion]From 1992 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer showed a downward trend both globally and in China.The disease burden of HBV-related liver cancer in China was higher than the global level.The age-period-cohort model has revealed the historical changes in the incidence and mortality of HBV-related liver cancer.The current and future situation of the disease burden of HBV-related liver cancer is not optimistic.It is recommended to implement precise stratified interventions for populations of different ages,periods,and birth cohorts,and actively transform the prevention,treatment,and management strategies for HBV-related liver cancer.
