The influencing factors of prognosis in critically ill patients and the predictive value of CALLY index
10.3760/cma.j.cn101721-20241105-00357
- VernacularTitle:危重症患者预后的影响因素及CALLY指数的预测价值
- Author:
Pu LI
1
;
Ting YE
;
Yangmei MEI
;
Yujie WANG
;
Wenting WU
;
Zhipeng HU
Author Information
1. 湖北医药学院附属国药东风总医院急诊内科，十堰 442000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Critically ill;
C-reactive protein;
Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ;
Albumin;
Lymphocyte
- From:
Clinical Medicine of China
2025;41(6):446-451
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the factors influencing the prognosis of critically ill patients and the predictive value of the C-reactive protein-albumin-lymphocyte (CALLY) index.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 122 critically ill patients admitted to Guoyao Dongfeng General Hospital affiliated with Hubei University of Medicine from June 2022 to December 2023. Patients were divided into a death group and a survival group based on their 28-day prognosis. Clinical data were compared between the two groups to analyze the factors influencing prognosis and assess the predictive value of various indicators. Normally distributed measurement data were expressed as Mean±SD, and intergroup comparisons were performed by independent samples t-test; non-normally distributed measurement data were expressed as M( Q1,Q3), and intergroup comparisons were performed by the Mann-Whitney U test. Counting data were expressed as case (%), and intergroup comparisons were performed by the χ2 test. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze factors influencing patient prognosis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to analyze the predictive value of each indicator. Results:The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score, blood lactate, CRP, and B-type natriuretic peptide levels in the death group were higher than those in the survival group [22 (17, 30) points vs. 17 (14, 22) points, (4.8±1.4) mmol/L vs. (3.3±1.0) mmol/L, 134 (83, 2 381) mg/L vs. 13 (10, 27) mg/L, 259 (111, 592) ng/L vs. 108 (40, 247) ng/L; Z=3.04, P=0.002; t=5.79, P<0.001; Z=8.57, P<0.001; Z=3.28, P=0.001, respectively]. Albumin, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count (LYC), and the CALLY index were lower in the death group than in the survival group [(31±5) g/L vs. (37±6) g/L, (58±9)×10 9/L vs. (63±10)×10 9/L, 0.6 (0.4, 0.8)×10 9/L vs. 1.3 (0.8, 1.7)×10 9/L, 0.03 (0.02, 0.11) vs. 0.26 (0.13, 0.49); t=6.05, P<0.001; t=3.04, P=0.003; Z=5.82, P<0.001; Z=6.52, P<0.001, respectively]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the APACHE Ⅱ score and CRP were risk factors for poor prognosis in critically ill patients ( OR=1.349, 95% CI: 1.004-1.821, P=0.048; OR=1.006, 95% CI: 1.003-1.010, P=0.001, respectively), while LYC and the CALLY index were protective factors ( OR=0.297, 95% CI: 0.111-0.795, P=0.016; OR=0.989, 95% CI: 0.955-0.999, P=0.001, respectively). The area under the ROC curve for the CALLY index predicting 28-day mortality in critically ill patients was 0.872 (95% CI: 0.800-0.926), which was higher than that of the APACHE Ⅱ score, LYC, and CRP [0.673 (95% CI: 0.582-0.756), 0.664 (95% CI: 0.573-0.748), 0.576 (95% CI: 0.482-0.665), respectively]. The cut-off values were 0.06, 20 points, 0.8×10 9/L, and 50 mg/L, respectively. When the CALLY index was 0.06, the specificity was 97.65%, the sensitivity was 72.97%, and the Youden index was 0.706. Conclusions:The APACHE Ⅱ score, CRP, LYC, and CALLY index are all factors influencing the prognosis of critically ill patients. The CALLY index has certain predictive value, but its false negative rate is relatively high. Further combination with other indicators is needed to improve its predictive value.
