Comparative analysis of the influencing factors of hematoma enlargement and the prediction effect of related scales in patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage
10.3760/cma.j.cn101721-20240830-00279
- VernacularTitle:高血压性脑出血患者血肿扩大影响因素及相关评估工具预测效果对比分析
- Author:
Qiannan LI
1
;
Lingmin FENG
1
;
Xuelian ZHOU
1
;
Xiao MIAO
1
Author Information
1. 江苏省连云港市第一人民医院神经外科，连云港 222000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Cerebral hemorrhage, hypertensive;
Hematoma enlargement;
Influencing factors;
Nomograms;
Comparison of assessment tools
- From:
Clinical Medicine of China
2025;41(1):59-66
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of hematoma enlargement in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage and construct a corresponding risk prediction nomogram. The screening effects of the constructed model and different hematoma enlargement risk assessment tools were compared and analyzed.Methods:Two hundred and thirty-two patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage from the Department of Neurosurgery, Lianyungang First People's Hospital from April 2021 to February 2022 were selected as the research subjects. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of hematoma expansion in patients with hyperhemamic intracerebral hemorrhage, and R software was used to construct a nomo diagram. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model, and the decision curve was used to analyze the clinical validity of the model. The constructed Nomo diagram, nine-point method and BRAIN score were used to assess the risk of hematoma enlargement in the included patients and used them as test variables, and the ROC curve was plotted to compare and analyze the area under the ROC curve, sensitivity and specificity of the constructed Nomo diagram, nine-point method and BRAIN score. The Kappa test was used to analyze the consistency between the Nomo diagram, the nine-point method, and the BRAIN score and the hematoma expansion results.Results:The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that blood pressure was poorly controlled ( OR=13.290, 95% CI: 3.676-48.049), ventricular penetration ( OR=4.825, 95% CI: 1.458-15.975), early neurological deterioration ( OR=27.740, 95% CI: 8.713-88.314), Glasgow Coma Scale(GCS)≤8 points ( OR=25.883, 95% CI: 6.542-102.404) was the main influencing factor for hematoma expansion in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage (The P values were <0.001, 0.010, <0.001, and <0.001, respectively). The H-L test results of Nomogram for predicting hematoma enlargement were χ2=3.20, P=0.525, the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, and the mean absolute error was 0.015, and the decision curve analysis showed that the model had good clinical validity. The ROC results showed that the area under the ROC curve of the constructed Neumo diagram, nine-point method and BRAIN score were 0.971 (95% CI: 0.941-0.989), 0.696 (95% CI: 0.632-0.755), and 0.778 (95% CI: 0.719-0.830)(all P<0.001). The sensitivities were 94.37%, 71.83%, and 84.51%, and the specificities were 90.68%, 58.39%, and 65.84%, respectively. The results of Kappa test showed that the Kappa values of Nuomo diagram, nine-point method and BRAIN score were 0.806 , 0.264 and 0.429 (all P<0.001). Conclusion:The main influencing factors of hematoma enlargement in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage were poor blood pressure control, intraventricular hemorrhage, early neurological deterioration, and GCS score. The effect of the constructed Nuomo diagram model in predicting hematoma expansion in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage is better than that of the nine-point method and the BRAIN score, which has clinical application value.
