Analysis of the Disease Burden of Gastric Cancer in Chi-na,Japan and Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2021 and Prediction of Trends from 2022 to 2031
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.08.A004
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年中国、日本、韩国胃癌疾病负担变化及2022-2031年预测分析
- Author:
Yujie WU
1
;
Siyi HE
1
;
Mengdi CAO
1
;
Yi TENG
1
;
Qianru LI
1
;
Jiachen WANG
1
;
Nuopei TAN
1
;
Tingting ZUO
1
;
Changfa XIA
1
;
Jufang SHI
1
;
Wanqing CHEN
1
Author Information
1. 国家癌症中心/国家肿瘤临床医学研究中心/中国医学科学院北京协和医学院/肿瘤医院癌症早诊早治办公室,北京 100021
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
gastric cancer;
incidence;
mortality;
disease burden;
China;
Japan;
Republic of Korea;
prediction
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(8):626-635
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the epidemiology and disease burden of gastric cancer in China,Japan and Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2021 and to predict changing trends from 2022 to 2031.[Methods]Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database.Age-stan-dardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),crude incidence rate(CIR),crude mortality rate(CMR),and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rate for China,Japan and Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed.Joinpoint regression software was used to analyze trends and calculate annual percentage changes.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was applied to predict incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2031.[Results]In 2021,China had 611 799 new gastric cancer cases and 445 013 deaths,with an ASIR of 29.05/105 and an ASMR of 21.51/105,both significantly higher than those in Japan and Republic of Korea.Among men in China,both the ASIR(44.48/105)and ASMR(32.61/105)were the highest among the three countries,exceeding those in Japan(38.77/105,20.26/105)and Re-public of Korea(38.98/105,20.50/105).Among women,China had the highest number of new cases,but its ASIR(15.23/105)was slightly lower than Republic of Korea's(15.57/105)and higher than Japan's(14.66/105).However,China's ASMR among women(12.02/105)remained significantly higher than Japan's(7.64/105)and Republic of Korea's(8.08/105).From 1990 to 2021,ASIR,ASMR and DALY rates for gastric cancer declined in all three countries,but the reduction in China was significantly smaller than that in Japan and Republic of Korea,with Republic of Korea showing the steepest declines across all indicators.ARIMA model predictions indicated significant differences in disease burden among the three countries from 2022 to 2031.ASIR is projected to continue declining in China and Republic of Korea,reaching 22.87/105 and 12.45/105,respectively by 2031,while in Japan it is predicted to rise to 26.55/105.ASMR is projected to decline in all three countries,reaching 13.71/105(China),10.44/105(Japan),and 9.08/105(Republic of Korea)in 2031.[Conclusion]Among China,Japan and Republic of Korea,China had the highest ASIR and ASMR of gastric cancer in 2021.Moreover,from 1990 to 2021,the reductions in ASIR,ASMR and DALY rates for gastric cancer were the smallest in China compared to Japan and Republic of Korea.These findings suggest that the disease burden of gastric cancer remains substantial in China,high-lighting the need for increased efforts in gastric cancer screening and early diagnosis and treatment.
