Mortality Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Model of Pan-creatic Cancer in Shanghai Pudong New Area,2002-2022
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.07.A004
- VernacularTitle:2002-2022年上海市浦东新区胰腺癌死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析
- Author:
Caixia HU
1
;
Jiayi SHENG
1
;
Lianghong SUN
1
;
Hua CHEN
1
;
Xiaobin QU
1
;
Sen WANG
1
;
Siyue HAN
1
;
Yichen CHEN
1
;
Caoyi XUE
1
;
Shaotan XIAO
1
;
Lipeng HAO
1
Author Information
1. 上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心,复旦大学浦东预防医学研究院,上海 200136
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
pancreatic cancer;
mortality rate;
potential years of life lost;
age-period-cohort model;
Shanghai
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(7):522-529
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the trends in pancreatic cancer mortality and disease burden among residents in Shanghai Pudong New Area from 2002 to 2022,and to investigate the effects of age,period,and birth cohort on mortality risk.[Methods]Data on pancreatic cancer deaths among residents of Pudong New Area from 2002 to 2022 were collected through the Shanghai Population Cause of Death Registration System.The crude mortality rate,age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population(ASMRC),potential years of life lost(PYLL),potential years of life lost rate(PYLLR),and average years of life lost(AYLL)were calculated.Joinpoint regression was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)for analyzing the changing trend of the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer.The age-period-cohort model was applied with R 4.4.1 to analyze the age,period,and cohort effects on the mortality risk of pancreatic cancer.[Results]The crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer among residents in Pudong New Area increased from 10.42/105 in 2002 to 18.73/105 in 2022,showing a significant upward trend(AAPC=2.90％,P＜0.001);the ASMRC was generally stable(AAPC=-0.05％,P=0.775).The crude mortality rate of males(17.09/105)was higher than that of females(13.75/105),and both showed an upward trend(AAPC=3.05％and 2.75％respectively,both P＜0.001).After the age of 40,the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer increased significantly with the growth of age in both sexes.The PYLL was 31 347 person-years,showing an upward trend(AAPC=1.83％,P＜0.001),and the AYLL was 3.59 years,showing a downward trend(AAPC=-2.45％,P＜0.001).The age effect showed that the mortality risk of pan-creatic cancer was increased with age;the period effect showed that the mortality risk decreased from 2002 to 2016 and then increased;the cohort effect showed that the mortality risk increased with the advancement of the birth cohort.[Conclusion]From 2002 to 2022,the crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in Pudong New Area showed an upward trend,and the mortality rate of males was higher than that of females.The mortality risk of pancreatic cancer increases with age,and the later the birth year of the residents,the higher the mortality risk.Early screening should be strengthened for men and the elderly,environmental and lifestyle risk factors should be paid attention to in combination with the characteristics of cohort effect,and the prevention and control strategy for the whole population should be optimized.
