Construction of nomogram prediction model for progression-free survival after surgery in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.17.003
- VernacularTitle:肝内胆管癌患者术后无进展生存期的列线图预测模型构建
- Author:
Jie DUAN
1
;
Jie CHEN
1
;
Sixian WU
1
;
Lirong PENG
1
Author Information
1. 湖南省人民医院(湖南师范大学附属第一医院)检验科,湖南长沙 410005
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma;
Progression-free survival;
Nomogram;
Diagnostic model
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(17):8-11
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting the progression-free survival(PFS)of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)after surgical resection,and a predictive nomogram model was constructed based on blood test indicators.Methods A total of 99 ICC patients who received their first treatment at Hunan Provincial People's Hospital from January 2020 to December 2022 were selected as research subjects,they were divided into training group(n=70)and validation group(n=29).The independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression analysis and multivariate Cox risk regression analysis.The accuracy and clinical utility of the method were further tested by consistency index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration graph,decision curve analysis,and progression-free survival curve.Results LASSO and multivariate Cox risk regression analysis showed that patient's gender,tumor-lymph node metastasis,differentiation grade,tumor diameter,aspartate aminotransferase,alpha-fetoprotein,total bile acid after surgery,and monocyte changes before and after surgery were independent factors affecting the PFS of ICC patients.The predictive model based on the risk factor showed that the consistency index of the training group was 0.884 and that of the validation group was 0.838.The area under ROC curve for training group:PFS prediction at 6 months,1 year,and 2 years were 0.972,0.965 and 0.923,respectively;for validation group:PFS prediction at 6 months,1 year,and 2 years were 0.972,0.821 and 0.923,respectively.The risk score calculated according to the nomogram divided ICC patients into high-risk group and low-risk group with high postoperative recurrence risk,and the median PFS in high-risk group was significantly shorter than that in low-risk group(P＜0.05).Conclusion The nomogram constructed by this study has good predictive effect and can be used as a supplementary evaluation for predicting PFS after ICC patients.
