Construction and evaluation of a nomogram for predicting the postoperative prognosis of patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma based on the preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio
10.3760/cma.j.cn113884-20250206-00039
- VernacularTitle:基于术前淋巴细胞与单核细胞比值的远端胆管癌患者术后预后预测列线图的构建与评估
- Author:
Jun MA
1
;
Hanxuan WANG
1
;
Youwei MA
1
;
Shaocheng LYU
1
;
Qiang HE
1
Author Information
1. 首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院肝胆胰脾外科，北京 100020
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Bile duct neoplasms;
Lymphocytes;
Monocytes;
Prognosis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery
2025;31(7):524-528
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the predictive value of the preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) for the postoperative prognosis of distal cholangiocarcinoma.Methods:Clinical data of 197 patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma undergoing radical surgery at Beijing Chaoyang Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University from January 2011 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed, including 118 males and 79 females, aged (65.1±10.2) years. Patients were randomly divided into the training set ( n=137) and the test set ( n=60) in a ratio of 7∶3. The training set is used to construct the nomogram, and the test set is used to evaluate the nomogram. Multivariate analysis of the influencing factors of long-term survival after surgery for distal cholangiocarcinoma was conducted using Lasso regression and Cox regression. And based on the results of multiple factors, a nomogram for predicting the postoperative prognosis of distal cholangiocarcinoma was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, conformance index, calibration curve and decision curve were used to analyze and evaluate the predictive efficacy of the model. Results:Lasso regression screening showed that smoking history, preoperative LMR, preoperative total bilirubin, preoperative carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, intraoperative blood loss, tumor differentiation degree, T staging of tumor, portal vein system invasion, nerve invasion and lymph node metastasis were risk factors affecting the long-term survival after surgery (all P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that preoperative LMR, CA19-9, T staging of tumor, portal vein system invasion and lymph node metastasis were the influencing factors for long-term survival after surgery for distal cholangiocarcinoma. Based on the above factors, a nomogram for predicting the postoperative prognosis of distal cholangiocarcinoma was constructed. The areas under the ROC curves of this nomogram for predicting 3-year postoperative survival in the training set and the test set were 0.806 (95% CI: 0.719-0.893) and 0.811 (95% CI: 0.696-0.927), respectively. The consistency indices of the training set and the test set were 0.730 (95% CI: 0.678-0.783) and 0.714 (95% CI: 0.637-0.790), respectively. The calibration curves of the model in the training set and test set shows that the model fits well in both sets. The decision curve analysis (DCA) shows that the model has good clinical predictive efficacy in both sets. When the threshold range in the training set is between 10% and 84% and in the test set is between 18% and 82%, the model can bring benefits in predicting postoperative prognosis. Conclusion:The preoperative LMR level is one of the influencing factors for the postoperative prognosis of patients after surgery for distal cholangiocarcinoma. LMR-based model can effectively predict postoperative prognosis of patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma.
