Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Mosla chinensis Maxim Based on MaxEnt Model
10.19879/j.cnki.1005-5304.202409011
- VernacularTitle:基于最大熵模型的我国石香薷潜在适生区预测研究
- Author:
Ge GAO
1
;
Xiuping WEN
;
Chengzi YANG
Author Information
1. 福建中医药大学药学院,福建 福州 350122
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Mosla chinensis Maxim;
MaxEnt model;
climate change;
environmental factors;
prediction of suitable areas
- From:
Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine
2025;32(3):17-23
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To predict the potential suitable areas and change trend of the medicinal plant Mosla chinensis Maxim;To analyze the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Mosla chinensis Maxim;To provide scientific strategies for promoting the cultivation of Mosla chinensis Maxim.Methods Based on the actual geographical distribution data and environmental factor data of Mosla chinensis Maxim,MaxEnt model was used to simulate the distribution of potential suitable areas in the current and four climate scenarios in future three periods.The model prediction results were tested for accuracy using the receiver operating characteristic curve method to identify the main environmental factors that affect the potential suitable area distribution of Mosla chinensis Maxim and analyze their distribution,changes and migration trends.Results The accuracy test of the model,indicated high reliability of the results;the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas for the growth of Mosla chinensis Maxim were the lowest temperature in the coldest month,annual precipitation and temperature seasonality.Under the current climate scenario,the potential suitable areas of Mosla chinensis Maxim were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei,Chongqing,Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guizhou,Guangdong,Guangxi,Fujian and Taiwan,among which the high suitable areas were mainly in Jiangxi,Hunan,Fujian,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Guangxi and Taiwan.Under the future climate scenario,the geographical distribution pattern of potential suitable areas of Mosla chinensis Maxim will be relatively stable,and the suitable areas will change along the high latitude but the total area decreases.Under the current and future climate scenarios,the centroid and centroid migration trajectories of the potential suitable area of Mosla chinensis Maxim will be in Hunan.Conclusion This study predicted distribution of potential changes in the distribution of suitable growth areas for Mosla chinensis Maxim,which can provide references for the sustainable utilization and promotion of cultivation of Mosla chinensis Maxim resources.
