Analysis of risk factors for sodium valproate-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients and construction of risk prediction model
- VernacularTitle:丙戊酸钠致神经重症患者高氨血症的危险因素分析及风险预测模型构建
- Author:
Wan XU
1
;
Jin WU
1
;
Jiaojiao MAO
1
;
Jingjing MA
1
;
Yao FEI
1
Author Information
1. Dept. of Pharmacy，the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University，Jiangsu Suzhou 215000，China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
sodium valproate;
hyperammonemia;
risk prediction model;
independent risk factors;
LASSO regression;
Logistic
- From:
China Pharmacy
2026;37(8):1039-1044
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To investigate the risk factors for sodium valproate （VPA）-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients， and to construct a risk prediction model. METHODS Clinical data were retrospectively collected from 172 neurocritical patients who received VPA treatment in the Department of Critical Care Medicine， the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2022 to June 2025. Patients were divided into the hyperammonemia group （73 cases） and the normal group （99 cases） based on their blood ammonia levels. Univariate analysis and LASSO regression analysis were used to screen for predictive variables. Independent factors were identified through multivariate Logistic regression analysis， and a nomogram was constructed accordingly. The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve， calibration curve， and decision curve analysis （DCA）. RESULTS Combination of univariate analysis and LASSO regression analysis screened out seven predictive variables： body mass index （BMI）≥24.0 kg/m 2 ， concomitant use of benzodiazepines， VPA blood concentration， hemoglobin， serum urea， average daily VPA dose， and albumin. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that concomitant use of benzodiazepines， BMI≥24.0 kg/m 2 ， VPA blood concentration， albumin and serum urea level （with odds ratios of 1.615， 1.538， 1.623， 1.942 and 0.637， respectively； 95% confidence intervals of 1.128-2.359， 1.059-2.251， 1.112-2.431， 1.106-3.598 and 0.402-0.980， respectively） were all significantly associated with VPA-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients （ P ＜0.05）. The nomogram prediction model constructed based on these variables was evaluated， showing that the area under the ROC curve was 0.810 for the test set and 0.844 for the validation set. The calibration curves closely approximated t he actual curves， and the application of this model could improve the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS Concomitant use of benzodiazepines， BMI≥24.0 kg/m 2 ， high VPA blood concentration and high albumin level are independent risk factors for VPA-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients， while high serum urea level is an independent protective factor. The risk prediction model constructed based on these factors exhibits good discrimination， consistency， and clinical applicability， making it applicable for predicting the risk of VPA-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients.
