Epidemiological analysis and incidence trend prediction of mumps in Nantong City in 2016 - 2023
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.02.018
- VernacularTitle:2016—2023年南通市流行性腮腺炎流行病学分析及发病趋势预测
- Author:
Enhui ZHAO
1
;
Ye WEI
1
;
Hongmei JIN
1
;
Wuhong ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Acute Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nantong, Jiangsu 226000 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Mumps;
SARIMA model;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Incidence trend
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(2):84-88
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of mumps in Nantong City from 2016 to 2023, and to provide a basis for scientific prevention and control. Methods Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted on monthly mumps incidence data in Nantong City from 2016 to 2023, and a SARIMA model was constructed to predict the incidence trend. Results A total of 3 928 mumps cases were reported in Nantong City from 2016 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 6.36/100 000. Cases predominantly occurred during April–July and September–December, showing seasonal peaks. The male-to-female ratio was 1.43:1. The cases were concentrated in individuals aged ≤15 years (85.57%), primarily students, children in childcare settings, and scattered children (88.31%). The optimal model constructed by the SPSS Expert Modeler was SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12, predicting an epidemic peak of mumps in Nantong City from September to November in the second half of 2024. Conclusion From 2016 to 2023, mumps incidence in Nantong City has shown an overall downward trend with a seasonal bimodal distribution. Males had higher incidence rates than females, and cases were predominantly students, kindergartens and scattered children, highlighting the need to strengthen mumps prevention in schools and childcare institutions. The SARIMA model is suitable for short to medium term prediction of mumps in Nantong City. A minor peak is predicted to occur in the second half of 2024 (September–November). It is necessary to strengthen the epidemic surveillance of mumps and vaccination of age-eligible children.
