Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal aggregation of scarlet fever in Nantong City in 2009 - 2023
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.02.009
- VernacularTitle:2009—2023年南通市猩红热流行病学特征及时空聚集性分析
- Author:
Chao BAO
1
;
Junfeng MIAO
1
;
Enhui ZHAO
1
;
Zhenzhen LIU
1
;
Wuhong ZHANG
1
;
Ye WEI
1
Author Information
1. Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nantong, Jiangsu 226007, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Scarlet fever;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Incidence trend;
Temporal-spatial clustering
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(2):40-44
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering trend of scarlet fever in Nantong from 2009 to 2023, and to provide a scientific basis for scarlet fever prevention and control. Methods The incidence data of scarlet fever in Nantong from 2009 to 2023 were analyzed. Descriptive analysis, seasonal index method and Joinpoint 5.2.0 software were used to analyze epidemiological characteristics. Spatial-temporal clustering was assessed with SaTScan 10.2.5 software. Results The average annual incidence of scarlet fever in Nantong from 2009 to 2023 was 6.54/100 000. The overall morbidity rate of scarlet fever in Nantong had an increasing trend from 2009 to 2019 with an average annual percentage change of 14.55% (t=3.36，P<0.05). The cases mainly occurred during late spring to early summer and late autumn to early winter. Students, preschool children and scattered children were the main scarlet fever population. The average annual incidence of males was significantly higher than that of females (χ2=7.00, P<0.05). Rugao City, Chongchuan District and Tongzhou District were identified as high-incidence areas, accounting for 76.51% of all reported cases. Spatial-temporal scan analysis indicated that Rugao City and Chongchuan District were primary cluster areas, spanning from 2015 to 2021 (RR=3.77, LLR=1 308.07, P<0.05). Conclusion The number of reported cases of scarlet fever in Nantong City from 2009 to 2023 shows epidemic and spatial clustering, mainly concentrated in the central urban area and adjacent counties (cities). It is necessary to strengthen health education and disease surveillance in high-incidence areas, as well as in key institutions and key populations before epidemic peaks.
