Analysis and prediction of the incidence trend of congenital syphilis in China in 2005 - 2020
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.02.003
- VernacularTitle:2005—2020年中国胎传梅毒发病趋势分析及预测
- Author:
Yongfa QIN
1
;
Yatao BI
1
;
Jia ZHAO
1
;
Zhenli WU
1
;
Xue HAN
1
Author Information
1. Yangpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200090, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Congenital syphilis;
Incidence;
Temporal trend;
Prediction
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(2):12-16
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the incidence of congenital syphilis in four regions of China from 2005 to 2020 and predict its change trend, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of congenital syphilis. Methods The incidence data of congenital syphilis in eastern, western, central and northeastern China from 2005 to 2020 were collected. The annual change percentage (APC) and average annual change percentage (AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint software, and the change trend was analyzed. The ARIMA model was established by SPSS26.0 software to predict the incidence from 2021 to 2025. Results From 2005 to 2020, there were 107 504 cases of congenital syphilis, and the incidence reached the peak in 2011, which was 0.90/100 000, and decreased to 0.09/100 000 in 2020. The incidence of congenital syphilis in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions of China decreased to 0.07/100 000, 0.06/100 000, 0.12/100 000, and 0.15/100 000 in 2020, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis found that from 2005 to 2020, the incidence of congenital syphilis showed a downward trend in the whole country (AAPC=-8.68%, t=-5.18, P＜0.05), the eastern region (AAPC=-12.01%, t=-6.81, P＜0.05), the central region (AAPC=-5.45%, t=-2.09, P＜0.05), and the western region (AAPC=-6.05%, t=-3.00, P＜0.05), while the incidence in the northeast region was relatively stable (AAPC=-1.66%, t=-1.18，P＞0.05). The ARIMA (2,2,0) model was constructed to predict that the annual incidence of congenital syphilis from 2021 to 2025 would be 0.06/100,000, 0.03/100,000, 0.02/100,000, 0.01/100,000, and 0.01/100,000, respectively. Conclusion From 2005 to 2020, the incidence of congenital syphilis in China shows an overall downward trend. The western and northeastern regions are the key prevention and control areas, and the work of "eliminating mother to child transmission of syphilis" needs to be continuously promoted.
