Analysis and prediction of incidence trend of liver cirrhosis caused by non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in China in 1990 - 2021
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.02.002
- VernacularTitle:1990—2021年中国非酒精性脂肪性肝病所致肝硬化的发病趋势分析及预测
- Author:
Xi LIU
1
;
Yamei LI
1
;
Tiancheng ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan 421001, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease;
Cirrhosis;
Incidence trend;
Prediction model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(2):7-11
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the incidence trends and influencing factors of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) -related cirrhosis in China, predict future disease burden, and provide evidence for public health prevention strategies. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we employed joinpoint regression analysis to analyze NAFLD-related cirrhosis trends in China from 1990 to 2021, quantified influencing factors using age-period-cohort modeling, and predicted future incidence through Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. Results The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of NAFLD-related cirrhosis showed a persistent increase from 1990 to 2021, with annual percentage changes (APCs) of 0.70% for male and 0.79% for female(both P<0.05). Age-effects revealed a U-shaped variation pattern, peaking in the 60-69 age group. Period effects indicated an incidence peak during 2017-2021. Cohort effects showed the most prominent risk in the 1992-1996 birth cohort. Projections suggested ASIR would further increase to 578.40 and 930.61 per 100 000 population for males and females, respectively, by 2030. Conclusions The disease burden of NAFLD-related cirrhosis continues to worsen in China, with future incidence rates projected to keep rising. Priority attention should be given to middle-aged and elderly populations and sex differences, with targeted prevention and control measures needing to be developed.
