Correlation between hand foot mouth disease incidence and meteorological factors with assessment for excess incidence risk among children in Jiujiang City
10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2026097
- VernacularTitle:九江市儿童手足口病发病与气象因素相关性及超额发病风险
- Author:
XIE Wenjing, XU Ting, ZHANG Jingjing, LI Jie, FU Weijie
1
Author Information
1. Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jiujiang City Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiujiang 332000, Jiangxi Province, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hand,foot and mouth disease;
Climate;
Regression analysis;
Child
- From:
Chinese Journal of School Health
2026;47(3):417-420
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To discuss the epidemiological characteristics of hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Jiujiang City, and its correlation with meteorological factors, so as to provide scientific evidence for developing targeted HFMD prevention and control measures.
Methods:HFMD incidence data among children and meteorological factor records from Jiujiang City during 2019-2023 were collected. Pearson correlation analysis and Quasi-Poisson regression analysis of generalized additive model were used to analyze the relationship between the number of cases and meteorological factors, calculating correlation coefficients (r) and excess risk (ER).
Results:The annual reported children HFMD cases in Jiujiang City during 2019-2023 were 4 299, 4 671, 2 560, 3 230, and 3 584, respectively. Except for a peak in autumn-winter in 2020, outbreaks occurred mainly in spring and summer in other years. The majority of cases involved scattered children (71.11%) and children in daycare centers (26.64%). Pearson correlation analysis showed that total case counts, cases among scattered children, and cases among children in daycare centers were positively correlated with average temperature ( r =0.36, 0.39, 0.23), maximum temperature ( r =0.32, 0.36, 0.20), minimum temperature ( r =0.37, 0.41, 0.24), and average relative humidity ( r =0.19, 0.20, 0.15) (all P <0.05). Quasi-Poisson regression analysis of generalized additive model revealed that total cases, cases among scattered children, and cases among daycare children were positively associated with average temperature ( r =0.05, 0.06, 0.03) and average relative humidity ( r =0.03, 0.02, 0.02) (all P <0.01). Excess incidence risk analysis indicated that for every 10 ℃ increase in average temperature, the ER (95% CI ) values were 72.16 (45.91-103.14), 79.76 (52.99- 111.23 ) and 39.30 (14.45-69.54) among total children, scattered children and daycare children, respectively; for every 10% increase in average relative humidity, the ER (95% CI ) values were 28.69 (12.22-47.56), 27.81 (12.01-45.84) and 24.42 (5.56-46.65), respectively.
Conclusions:The incidence level of HFMD among children in Jiujiang City is positively correlated with the average temperature and average relative humidity. Higher temperature and humidity are associated with an increased risk of excess HFMD incidence in scattered children compared to children in daycare centers.
