Disease burden and trend prediction of autism spectrum disorder in children and adolescents in China and globally
10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2026056
- VernacularTitle:中国与全球儿童青少年孤独症谱系障碍疾病负担及趋势预测
- Author:
GAO Yue, LI Hongjie, CHEN Meiqi, ZHOU Yang, YANG Xiaolei
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, Qiqihar Medical University, Qiqihar 161006, Heilongjiang Province, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Autistic disorder;
Cost of illness;
Forecasting;
Regression analysis;
Prevalence；Child；Adolescent
- From:
Chinese Journal of School Health
2026;47(2):268-272
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the current burden of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children and adolescents in China and globally, and to predict the disease burden from 2024 to 2035, providing a scientific basis for formulating relevant public health policies and intervention measures.
Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database in 2023, the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trends of the disease burden of ASD among children and adolescents in China and globally from 1990 to 2023, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed to predict the disease burden trends of ASD among children and adolescents in China and globally from 2024 to 2035.
Results:The prevalence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of ASD among children and adolescents in China increased from 452.69/100 000 and 86.67/100 000 in 1990 to 762.84/100 000 and 148.52/ 100 000 in 2023(AAPC=1.60%, 1.65%, both P <0.01). The prevalence and DALYs rate of ASD among children and adolescents globally increased from 648.49/100 000 and 123.47/100 000 to 862.44/100 000 and 167.16/100 000(AAPC=0.87%, 0.93%, both P <0.01). In 2023, the highest ASD prevalence and DALY rates occurred in children under 5 years old, with China reporting 848.14/100 000 and 166.69/100 000, both below the global averages of 928.80/100 000 and 181.34/100 000. Projections indicated that by 2035, the ASD prevalence and DALY rates in China would rise to 906.83/100 000 and 168.71/100 000, still below the global averages of 938.04/100 000 and 184.49/100 000.
Conclusion:The disease burden of ASD among children and adolescents in China and globally has generally increased from 1990 to 2023, with a higher risk of disease at younger ages.
