Analysis of the disease burden of hypertensive heart disease among individuals aged≥60 years globally and in China from 1990 to 2021
- VernacularTitle:1990—2021年全球与中国≥60岁人群高血压性 心脏病的疾病负担分析
- Author:
Jiali LI
1
;
Chunzhen REN
1
;
Fan LIU
1
;
Keyan WANG
1
;
Zhijiang BI
2
;
Xiaoxiao ZHAO
3
;
Lixin KE
4
;
Haibo WANG
5
;
Wenxi PENG
6
;
Zhifei WANG
6
;
Qiang ZHANG
7
;
Peng XU
8
;
Yingdong LI
1
,
9
;
Xiuxiu DENG
1
;
Xinke ZHAO
1
,
9
;
Cuncun LU
1
,
9
Author Information
1. School of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, 730101, P. R. China
2. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Qinghai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xining, 810000, P. R. China
3. Geriatric Medicine Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, 250014, P. R. China
4. Department of Pediatrics, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9713GZ, Netherlands
5. Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, 730000, P. R. China
6. Institute of Basic Research in Clinical Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100700, P. R. China
7. The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou, 450000, P. R. China
8. China Institute for History of Chinese Medicine and Medical Literature, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100700, P. R. China
9. Institute of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, 730101, P. R. China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hypertensive heart disease;
older adults;
population aging;
disease burden;
prediction model;
age-standardized rate;
Global Burden of Disease Database;
sociodemographic index
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2026;33(02):281-290
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To systematically analyze the characteristics of the disease burden of hypertensive heart disease (HHD) in the elderly (≥60 years) globally and in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict its future trends from 2022 to 2040, with the aim of providing data support for optimizing comprehensive prevention and control strategies for HHD. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, the number of prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of HHD in the elderly were extracted for the world, China, and five regions categorized by sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of HHD in the elderly. A three-factor decomposition method was applied to evaluate the relative contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes to the variations in the elderly HHD burden. Additionally, a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the elderly HHD burden from 2022 to 2040. Results In 2021, the number of prevalent elderly HHD cases reached 10 283 000 globally and 3 412 400 in China, representing increases of 179.20% and 159.20% respectively, compared with 1990. The DALYs of elderly HHD were 18 812 700 person-years globally and 4 731 400 person-years in China, rising by 76.08% and 29.45% respectively from 1990. Meanwhile, the growth rates of the number of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD varied across different SDI regions. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate of elderly HHD in China, as well as the age-standardized DALYs rate of elderly HHD both globally and in China, showed significant downward trends (all average annual percentage changes<0, all P<0.001). In 2021, the 70-74 years age group accounted for the highest proportion of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD, both globally and in China. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the dominant factor driving the increase in the elderly HHD burden across all regions. The prediction model results indicated that the number of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD would continue to rise globally and in China from 2022 to 2040, with the growth rate of the elderly HHD burden in China between 2021 and 2040 expected to exceed the global average. Conclusion Over the past 32 years, although the age-standardized disease rates of elderly HHD have mainly shown a downward trend globally and in China, the absolute number of the disease burden has increased substantially. The projection model indicates a continued upward trajectory, with the growth rate in China higher than the global average. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement precise prevention and control strategies to effectively mitigate the disease burden of elderly HHD.
