Trends and drivers of lung cancer disease burden among residents in Jing'an District, Shanghai, from 2002 to 2021
- VernacularTitle:2002—2021年上海市静安区居民肺癌疾病负担变化趋势与驱动因素
- Author:
Qiuping WAN
1
;
Zhou ZHOU
1
;
Yanmin WANG
1
;
Yunhui WANG
1
;
Wenjun GAO
1
;
Xiaolie YIN
1
;
Xiaoming YANG
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Investigation
- Keywords: lung cancer; disease burden; disability-adjusted life years; decomposition analysis; population aging
- From: Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(2):214-221
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Background Lung cancer, one of the most common malignant tumors worldwide, has long ranked first in cancer incidence and mortality, posing a severe challenge to public health systems. Objective To analyze the trends in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of lung cancer among residents in Jing'an District, Shanghai, from 2002 to 2021, explore the impacts of population aging, population growth, and age-specific prevalence on disease burden, and provide a scientific basis for optimizing regional lung cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the cancer registration and cause-of-death surveillance data of registered residents in Jing'an District, Shanghai, from 2002 to 2021, Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the annual change trends (APC) and average annual change trends (AAPC) of lung cancer incidence, mortality, DALY rate, and their age-standardized rates. Decomposition analysis was applied to quantify the contribution of population aging, population growth, and age-specific prevalence to changes in the number of new cases, deaths, and DALYs. Results From 2002 to 2021, the crude incidence rate of lung cancer in Jing'an District increased from 68.00 per
100000 to 144.36 per100000 (AAPC=4.86%, P<0.001), and the age-standardized incidence rate rose from 43.09 per100000 to 61.46 per100000 (AAPC=2.89%, P<0.001). The growth rate of incidence was significantly higher in females (AAPC=6.73%) than in males (AAPC=3.62%). The crude mortality rate increased from 58.08 per100000 to 66.11 per100000 (AAPC=1.10%, P<0.001), while the age-standardized mortality rate decreased (AAPC=−1.54%, P<0.001). The crude DALY rate showed an upward trend (AAPC=0.94%, P=0.002), whereas the age-standardized DALY rate declined (AAPC=−1.63%, P<0.001). Significant differences were observed across genders and age groups: the mortality and DALY rates increased in males aged 60-64 years, while the fastest incidence growth occurred in females aged 45-64 years. The results of decomposition analysis indicated that the increase in new cases was primarily attributed to age-specific incidence (38.15%) and aging (37.31%); the growth in deaths and DALYs was driven by aging, while age-specific mortality and population growth showed offsetting effects. From 2002 to 2021, the probability of premature death from lung cancer among males (2.04%-2.52%) in Jing'an District showed no statistically significant trend (AAPC=−0.28%, P=0.440), while it presented a decreasing trend in the total population (1.37%-1.89%) and females (0.72%-1.26%) (AAPC=−0.80% and −2.23%, respectively; P=0.029 and <0.001, respectively). Conclusion From 2002 to 2021, the risk of lung cancer incidence in Jing’an District, Shanghai, continue to increase, with a disease burden exhibiting significant heterogeneity by gender and age: key features include a rapid increase in new cases and a trend toward younger onset among females, alongside rising mortality risk among males aged 60–64 years. Population aging and increasing age-specific incidence rates are primary drivers of the growing number of cases, while declining age-specific mortality rates mitigate the rise in mortality burden.
