Analysis of the disease burden of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2021
- VernacularTitle:1990—2021年中国食管癌与胃癌疾病负担分析
- Author:
Chongrui LI
1
;
Shoucai HU
2
;
Bin LI
1
;
Mingzhi LIN
1
;
Yiming HU
1
;
Haitian LI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Second Hospital & Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University/Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Environmental Oncology/Cuiying Biomedical Research Center, The Second Hospital & Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730030, P. R. China
2. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The 940th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of Chinese People s Liberation Army, Lanzhou, 730030, P. R. China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Esophageal cancer;
gastric cancer;
disease burden;
trend of change;
China;
gender differences
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2025;32(10):1438-1446
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To assess the evolving disease burden of esophageal and gastric cancers in China from 1990 to 2021, with a focus on gender disparities, and construct a predictive model to forecast disease trends from 2022 to 2031, aiming to optimize targeted prevention strategies. Methods Epidemiological data for esophageal and gastric cancers in China (1990-2021) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression (version 4.9.1.0), and future trends were predicted via the GM (1, 1) model under grey system theory. Results From 1990 to 2021, tobacco- and alcohol-attributable burdens of esophageal cancer increased, while tobacco- and diet-related burdens of gastric cancer showed no significant change. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for esophageal cancer rose by 40.61% and 17.89%, respectively; gastric cancer deaths increased by 18.95%, though DALY decreased by 1.22%. Both cancers exhibited significant declines in age-standardized mortality rates (−45.78% for esophageal cancer, −53.29% for gastric cancer) and age-standardized DALY rates (−51.45% for esophageal cancer, −57.58% for gastric cancer). China’s age-standardized mortality and DALY rates for both cancers remained consistently higher than global averages. Males exhibited disproportionately higher burdens than females. Predictive modeling projected continued but decelerating declines in disease burdens for both cancers by 2031. Conclusion Over three decades, China achieves measurable reductions in esophageal and gastric cancer burdens, though gastric cancer burdens remain higher than esophageal cancer. Persistent disparities relative to global levels, elevated male burdens, and aging demographics highlight the urgency for prioritized interventions targeting high-risk populations.
