Prediction of ischemic stroke incidence based on CNN-LSTM-Attention model
10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2025.12.020
- VernacularTitle:基于 CNN⁃LSTM⁃Attention 模型的缺血性脑卒中发病预测
- Author:
Jiaming Liu
1
;
Xiao Zhou
1
;
Fuyin Wang
1
;
Xiao Sun
1
;
Xiaoshuang Xia
2
;
Xin Li
2
Author Information
1. Dept of Neurology, The Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300211
2. Dept of Neurology, The Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300211 ; Tianjin Center for Health and Meteorology Multidisciplinary Innovation , Tianjin 300211
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
ischemic stroke;
meteorological factors;
prediction model;
convolutional neural networks;
long short-term memory networks;
attention
- From:
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui
2025;60(12):2353-2362
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a deep learning model based on convolutional neural network(CNN)-long short term memory network(LSTM)-Attention to explore the correlation between meteorological and clinical factors and the incidence of ischemic stroke.
Methods:A fusion model CNN-LSTM-Attention based on CNN, LSTM, and Attention was constructed by incorporating clinical data and meteorological data of ischemic stroke inpatients. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by maximum prediction error and root mean square error(RMSE). The impact of different lag days on prediction performance was investigated by selecting lag periods ranging from 1 to 7 days.
Results:In both short-term and long-term predictions, the CNN-LSTM-Attention fusion model(short-term: 1.5 and 0.6; long-term: 8.3 and 2.5) showed superior maximum prediction bias and RMSE compared to the LSTM model(short-term: 2.8 and 1.2; long-term: 19.5 and 5.5) and the CNN-LSTM model(short-term: 2.0 and 0.8; long-term: 11.2 and 3.3). After incorporating lag days, the maximum prediction deviation and RMSE for lags of 3 days(short-term: 0.7 and 0.4; long-term: 5.5 and 1.9) and 5 days(short-term: 0.8 and 0.3; long-term: 6.5 and 2.0) in both short-term and long-term forecasts were smaller than lags of 0 days(short-term: 1.5 and 0.6; long-term: 8.3 and 2.5). The maximum prediction deviation and RMSE in the short-term forecast were greater than lag 0 days for both lag 1 days(1.5 and 0.8) and lag 7 days(1.9 and 0.9). In the long-term forecast, the two indicators for lag 1 days(6.8 and 2.4) were lower than those for lag 0 days but higher than those for lag 3 days and 5 days. The maximum prediction deviation for lag 7 days(7.5) was lower than that for lag 0 days, but the RMSE(2.7) is higher than that for lag 0 days.
Conclusion :The established CNN-LSTM-Attention model demonstrates significant predictive value for the onset of ischemic stroke and can provide reference for the rational allocation of medical resources.
- Full text:2026030409413362289基于CNN-LSTM-Attention模型的缺血性脑卒中发病预测_刘佳铭.pdf
