Epidemic trends and prevention and control effectiveness of notifiable infectious diseases in Yichang City based on interrupted time series
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.01.018
- VernacularTitle:基于中断时间序列分析宜昌市法定传染病流行趋势及防控效果
- Author:
Qian WU
1
;
Hao ZHANG
1
;
Zhongcheng YANG
1
;
Ling ZHOU
1
;
Yi LIANG
1
;
Yajun CAO
1
Author Information
1. Yichang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang, Hubei 443005, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Notifiable infectious diseases;
SARIMA model;
Interrupted time series;
Epidemic characteristics
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(1):88-92
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of statutory infectious diseases in Yichang City from 2015 to 2023 and evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in infectious disease prevention and control, and to provide a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze annual incidence rates. SARIMA and SARIMA intervention models were constructed to predict the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Interrupted time series analysis (ITS) was applied to assess the control effectiveness. Results The average annual incidence rate from 2015 to 2023 was 787.47/100 000, with the top five diseases being influenza, hand-foot-and-mouth disease, hepatitis B, tuberculosis, and diarrheal diseases. The average incidence rate from 2015 to 2019 (654.31/100 000) was significantly higher than that from 2020 to 2022 (489.01/100 000) (χ2= 3 499.6, P < 0.05). The total incidence rate in 2023 (2 396.51/100 000) was significantly higher than the average annual incidence rates from 2015-2019 (χ2= 108 186.1, P < 0.05) and 2020-2022 (χ2= 112 869.4, P < 0.05). SARIMA model results indicated that the actual incidence rate from 2020 to 2022 decreased by 73.49% compared to the predicted rate without intervention, with the highest decline observed in respiratory infectious diseases (79.57%). The SARIMA-intervention model showed a 55.48% relative decrease in the total incidence rate for 2023, with the largest reduction in respiratory infectious diseases (63.28%) and a slight increase in intestinal infectious diseases (5.48%). Conclusion NPIs effectively reduce the incidence of statutory infectious diseases in the short term, especially for acute respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases. However, long-term effectiveness faces challenges, necessitating the development of differentiated prevention and control strategies.
