A time-stratified case-crossover study on the relationship between meteorological factors and scarlet fever incidence in Xicheng District of Beijing
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.01.017
- VernacularTitle:北京市西城区气象因素与猩红热发病关系的时间分层病例交叉研究
- Author:
Di QIN
1
;
Chunna MA
2
;
Xiaokan WEI
1
;
Xiugang GUAN
1
;
Yanhui CHU
1
Author Information
1. Xicheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100120, China
2. Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Scarlet fever;
Meteorological factors;
Time-stratified case-crossover study;
Conditional logistic regression
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(1):83-87
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of scarlet fever in Xicheng District of Beijing, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Daily scarlet fever incidence data and corresponding meteorological data from 2010 to 2019 in Xicheng District of Beijing were collected. Using year, month, and day of the week as time-stratified variables, a conditional logistic regression model with a time-stratified case-crossover design was employed to analyze the impact of different meteorological factors on the number of scarlet fever cases in Xicheng District, while controlling for long-term trends, seasonality and other confounding factors. Results From 2010 to 2019, a total of 3,195 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Xicheng District, with an average annual incidence rate of 24.17/100 000. The overall trend showed fluctuating decline, during which three incidence peaks occurred, with the highest incidence rate observed in 2011. No severe or fatal cases were reported. The incidence of scarlet fever exhibited a distinct seasonal bimodal distribution, primarily concentrated between April to June and November to January of the following year. The conditional logistic regression results showed that the average relative humidity and average temperature were positively correlated with scarlet fever cases (β=0.0203, β=0.0613, P＜0.001), while the average vapor pressure was negatively correlated with scarlet fever cases (β=-0.1468, P＜0.001). Increases average relative humidity and average temperature were risk factors for scarlet fever incidence (OR=1.0205，95%CI=1.0150 -1.0261；OR=1.0632，95%CI=1.0379 -1.0891). For every 1.00% increase in average relative humidity, the number of scarlet fever cases increased by 2.05% (1.50% –2.61%). Similarly, for every 1。C rise in average temperature, the number of cases increased by 6.32% (3.79% – 8.91%). In contrast, an increase in average vapor pressure had a protective effect against scarlet fever (OR=0.8635,95%CI=0.8392-0.8885). For every 1 hPa increase in average vapor pressure, the number of scarlet fever cases decreased by 13.65% (11.15%–16.08%). Conclusion The average relative humidity, average temperature and average vapor pressure are the primary meteorological factors influencing the incidence of scarlet fever in Xicheng District of Beijing, and can be utilized as indicators for the prevention, control, surveillance and early warning of scarlet fever.
