Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering analysis of varicella in Changzhou
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.01.015
- VernacularTitle:常州市水痘流行病学特征及空间聚集性分析
- Author:
Yao ZHANG
1
;
Changlei HAN
2
;
Jie TAN
3
Author Information
1. Changzhou Tianning District Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou , Jiangsu 213000, China
2. Changzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou , Jiangsu 213000, China;Changzhou Institute for Advanced Study of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou , Jiangsu 213000, China
3. Changzhou Wujin District Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou , Jiangsu 213100 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Varicella;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Spatial autocorrelation analysis;
Spatiotemporal clustering analysis
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(1):73-77
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological and spatial clustering characteristics of varicella in Changzhou from 2018 to 2024, and to provide a theoretical support for the formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods The reported case information of varicella in Changzhou from 2018 to 2024 was collected through the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the three-dimensional distribution characteristics were analyzed. The incidence trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed by Arc GIS 10.5 software. The spatiotemporal scanning analysis was carried out with SaTScan 10.1.2 software. Results From 2018 to 2024, a total of 42,132 cases of varicella were reported in Changzhou, with an average annual incidence of 116.25/100,000. The reported incidence showed a downward trend, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -21.96% (95%C1: -32.63%~-9.33%, P<0.01). The incidence showed a “bimodal distribution”, and the age group was mainly under 15 years old (29,086 cases, accounting for 69.04%). The difference in incidence between men and women was statistically significant (χ2= 92.83, P<0.001), and the incidence gradually decreased with age ( χ2trend=112771.44, P<0.001). Global autocorrelation analysis showed that there was spatial aggregation in the six years (P<0.05), and local autocorrelation analysis showed that most of the towns (streets) in the three central urban areas of Tianning District, Zhonglou District, and Xinbei District, as well as some towns (streets) in Liyang City, Wujin District, and Economic Development Zone were high-high aggregation areas. Spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that the first type of aggregation area was most of the towns (streets) in Tianning District, Zhonglou District and Xinbei District (23, accounting for 92%), and some towns (streets) in Wujin District and Economic Development Zone (RR=3.76, P<0.001), and the second type of aggregation area was most of the towns (streets) in Liyang City (7, accounting for 70%) (RR=3.66, P<0.001). Conclusion The reported incidence of varicella in Changzhou City shows a downward trend, with multiple spatial and temporal clusters. The prevention and control of varicella in high-risk clustering areas, peak hours and high-risk populations should be strengthened, and intervention measures should be taken as soon as possible.
