China's population changes and thoughts on health countermeasures
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.01.001
- VernacularTitle:中国人口变迁与健康对策思考
- Author:
Jiayan GAO
1
;
Chuanhua YU
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
China;
Demographic transition;
Population aging;
Low fertility rate;
Non-communicable diseases;
Countermeasures
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(1):1-7
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective Analyzing the trends and driving factors of China's population structure changes from a global perspective, revealing its commonalities and specificities in reference to global levels, to provide a scientific basis for optimizing public health policies. Methods Integrating the latest authoritative data from sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics, GBD 2023, and the UN Population Division, this study utilizes Joinpoint regression to identify trend inflection points and conducts multidimensional analysis combined with methods such as ArcGIS spatial visualization. Results China's population is characterized by the triple overlapping trends of “negative growth, low birth rates, and aging”. The total population has experienced continuous negative growth since 2022. Taking 2023 as an example, the population pyramid exhibited features of a “narrowing base and expanding top”. The number of people in the 0-year age group was only 42.80% of the 1990 figure, while the population aged 60 and above was 2.89 times that of 1990. Significant interprovincial disparities exist, with some provinces showing a clustering phenomenon of “high mortality and low birth rates”. According to the Seventh National Population Census, the male population was larger, with an overall sex ratio of 105. The sex ratio reached balance (i.e., 100) at age 58 and dropped to just 42 by age 100. The disease spectrum is undergoing rapid transformation: the proportion of deaths attributable to chronic non-communicable diseases increased from 74.26% in 1990 to 90.69% in 2023. Conclusion China's population structure is undergoing accelerated changes characterized by declining fertility and population aging, which have formed a self-reinforcing negative cycle, posing multiple challenges to public health and services. There is an urgent need to establish a targeted policy framework focused on enhancing childbearing support, improving health services and chronic disease management for the elderly, and optimizing long-term care systems to foster a virtuous cycle in the demographic structure and enhance the overall health of the population.
