Analysis of Risk Factors for Chemotherapy Induced Myelosuppression and Construction of Prediction Models for Myelosuppression Based on Logistic Regression Analysis in Cancer Patients
10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20250815
- VernacularTitle:基于Logistic回归分析的恶性肿瘤患者化疗相关骨髓抑制的影响因素分析及预测模型建立
- Author:
Dongyan LIU
1
;
Yan LIU
;
Zhiming REN
;
Feng WANG
;
Yong WANG
Author Information
1. 昆明医科大学第一附属医院肿瘤放疗科,云南 昆明 650032
- Keywords:
Chemotherapy;
Myelosuppression;
High risk factors;
Prediction model;
Logistic regression analysisy
- From:
Journal of Kunming Medical University
2025;46(8):108-114
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the risk factors of myelosuppression after the chemotherapy in patients with malignant tumors,and to construct a Logistic regression prediction model based on the risk factors.Methods Clinical information of 80 chemotherapy patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University during 2021.01-2022.12 was anonymously collected,and the obtained clinical data were used for Logistic regression univariate analysis with the use of SPSS19.0 software to identify the risk factors related to chemotherapy induced myelosuppression.The risk factors were tested in Logistic multi-factor regression analysis and the Logistic regression analysis prediction models were constructed.In addition,clinical information of 40 patients was collected to test the prediction model,then the ROC curve,AUC value and Youden index were obtained.Results Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age,bone metastases,alanine aminotransferase(ALT),aspartate aminotransferase(AST),serum creatinine clearance(CCr),serum creatinine(Cr),concurrent radiotherapy(CRT),concurrent immunotherapy(IO),and the recent surgery were associated with the bone marrow suppression after the chemotherapy(P<0.05).The AUC values of the ROC curves of the corres-ponding models were 0.745,0.755 and 0.791,respectively,indicating that the risk of bone marrow suppression was higher when the predictive model p-value was greater than the above values.The Youden indices of the corresponding models were 0.677,0.713 and 0.769,respectively,indicating that the prediction performance of the model was better.Conclusion Age,serum creatinine clearance,liver function,the recent surgery,bone metastasis,concurrent radiotherapy/immunotherapy,and serum creatinine clearance are related to the incidence of chemotherapy induced myelosuppression.When p≥0.745(leukocytes),p≥0.755(platelets),and p≥0.791(anemia)through the predictive model calculations,the risk of leukocyte,platelets,and the anemia-related myelosuppression are significantly increased(≥95%),and appropriate preventive measures are recommended.
