The Value of Fitting NRS 2002,CONUT,RDW-SD and ALB in Assessing the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Patients with the Pulmonary Tuberculosis Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression Model
10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20250805
- VernacularTitle:基于Lasso-Logistic回归模型拟合NRS 2002评分、CONUT评分和RDW-SD、ALB评估肺结核患者静脉血栓栓塞症风险的价值
- Author:
Chunjing SHI
1
;
Wenming LI
;
Yun LUO
;
Huajie ZHANG
;
Liuxin HAN
;
Yanhong ZHAO
;
Longfen LI
;
Lingjun SHEN
Author Information
1. 昆明市第三人民医院综合结核病科,云南省传染性疾病临床医学中心,非结核分枝杆菌病诊疗医学技术中心,云南 昆明 650301
- Keywords:
Tuberculosis pulmonary;
Venous thromboembolism;
NRS 2002;
CONUT;
RDW-SD;
Serum albumin;
Nutrition assessment
- From:
Journal of Kunming Medical University
2025;46(8):33-42
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the relationship between nutritional parameters and the risk of venous thromboembolicism(VTE)in patients with tuberculosis so as to identify the risk factors and predictors of thrombosis and assist in the early identification of high-risk factors for VTE in patients with the pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods A total of 323 patients diagnosed with the pulmonary tuberculosis and hospitalized in Kunming Third People's Hospital from August 2021 to August 2023 were collected.According to the VTE risk assessment of non-operative patients,they were divided into the high-risk group and the low-risk group respectively with 116 and 207 in each group.The nutritional indicators with statistically significant differences between the two groups were screened by Lasso regression.Multivariate Logistic regression was used to screen the independent risk factors for high VTE risk in pulmonary tuberculosis patients,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed.The prediction model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC),calibration curve,decision curve,and influence curve.Results Patients in the high-risk group were significantly older than those in the low-risk group(59 vs.41,P<0.001),hypertension,gender,and Type 2 diabetes did not differ significantly(P values were 0.084,0.724 and 0.488,respectively).9 variables were selected from the inter-group comparison and Lasso regression,including ALB,HCT,NRS2002 scores,HBDH,RDW-SD,RDW-CV,TG,CONUT scores,and NEFA.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that ALB,NRS2002 scores,RDW-SD,and CONUT scores were independent influencing factors for the high risk of VTE scores in patients with tuberculosis(P<0.005).Area under the ROC curve showed that the AUC(0.892)for high-risk VTE scores in patients with the pulmonary tuberculosis was greater than that of ALB(0.803),NRS2002 score(0.735),RDW-SD(0.685),and CONUT score(0.774).Fitting prediction model:Logit(P):Y=0.433×NRS-0.136×ALB+0.411×CONUT score+0.072×RDW-SD-1.770,P=1/(1+e-Y)(Y:prediction index,P:prediction probability).Calibration curve showed that the model prediction tended to be consistent with the actual results(U:>0.05),and the decision curve and influence curve showed that the model can bring clinical benefits.Conclusion ALB,NRS2002 scores,RDW-SD,and CONUT scores are independent influencing factors for the high risk of VTE scores in patients with tuberculosis.They can guide the clinical practice,improve these indicators as soon as possible,reduce VTE scores,and reduce the thrombosis risk.At the same time,the prediction model performs well in the verification cohort,with its discrimination ability,calibration accuracy and clinical utility(decision curve analysis)all reaching a satisfactory level.
