Construction and Verification of A Prediction Model of Neonatal Pulmonary Hyaline Membrane Disease Complicated by Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia
10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20250611
- VernacularTitle:新生儿肺透明膜病并发支气管肺发育不良预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Jian YANG
1
;
Ping LI
;
Hongchao JIANG
Author Information
1. 昆明市第一人民医院儿科,云南 昆明 650100
- Keywords:
Neonatal hyaline membrane disease;
Bronchopulmonary dysplasia;
Risk factors;
Prediction model
- From:
Journal of Kunming Medical University
2025;46(6):89-95
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors for bronchopulmonary dysplasia(BPD)in infants with hyaline membrane disease(HMD)and establish a predictive model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 551 hospitalized HMD infants at Kunming First People's Hospital from January 2018 to December 2022.Patients were randomly divided into a training set(n=413)and a validation set(138)at a 3∶1 ratio.The training set was further divided into a simple HMD group(n=339)and an HMD with BPD group(n=74).Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression prediction models were used to analyze the risk factors associated with HMD complicated by BPD,with subsequent validation in the validation set.Results Univariate analysis showed statistically significant differences between the two groups in birth conditions,perinatal conditions,maternal conditions,laboratory indicators,and treatment conditions(P<0.05).Multivariate analysis indicated that birth weight and oxygen exposure time were independent risk factors for HMD complicated by BPD(P<0.05).The ROC curve assessment showed an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.954,indicating a certain predictive value for the model.In the validation set,the AUC was 0.917,with a sensitivity of 92.00%and a specificity of 89.38%.Conclusion Neonatal birth weight and duration of oxygen therapy were identified as significant risk factors for bronchopulmonary dysplasia(BPD)complicating hyaline membrane disease(HMD).The risk prediction model for HMD with BPD has good predictive performance.
