Discriminant analysis of the risk of hospital death in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock combined with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome
10.3760/cma.j.cn114656-20240308-00171
- VernacularTitle:创伤出血性休克合并多器官功能障碍综合征院内死亡风险的判别分析
- Author:
Dongxin JIANG
1
;
Xiujuan ZHAO
;
Wei HUANG
;
Fengxue ZHU
;
Tianbing WANG
Author Information
1. 北京大学第二临床医学院，北京 100044
- Keywords:
Hemorrhagic shock;
Trauma;
Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome;
Hospital mortality
- From:
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine
2025;34(11):1567-1573
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the risk of hospital death in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock combined with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome(MODS)predicted by discriminant analysis.Methods:This study was a single-center retrospective study. From January 2013 to May 2023, patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock complicated with MODS admitted to Peking University People's Hospital were selected as the research objects. According to the in-hospital survival, the patients were divided into survival group (205 cases) and death group (29 cases). The general condition, injury assessment, laboratory indexes, complications and clinical scores of the two groups were compared. Wilks's Lambda stepwise discriminant analysis was used to establish a discriminant model for in-hospital death in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock combined with MODS. the Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was drawn and the Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. The cross-validation method was used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction results of the established model.Results:There was a statistical difference between the survival group and the death group in terms of the main bleeding site (limbs), the time from injury to hospital admission, temperature, platelet count, prothrombin time, activated partial thrombin time, fibrinogen, albumin, serum creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate, uric acid, cardiac troponin I, procalcitonin, base excess, lactate to albumin ratio, glucose to albumin ratio, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, acute myocardial injury, traumatic induced coagulopathy, ISS, APACHEⅡ score and SOFA scores. There are four indicators entering the final discrimination model: Prothrombin time, ISS score, estimated glomerular filtration rate, lactate to albumin ratio. The AUC for predicting the risk of death in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock combined with MODS was 0.791, and the 95% CI was 0.671 to 0.911. Conclusions:The established discriminant model is highly accurate in predicting the risk of hospital death in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock complicated with MODS. Prothrombin time, ISS score, estimated glomerular filtration rate and lactate to albumin ratio were associated with an increased risk of death from traumatic hemorrhagic shock with MODS.
